Systematic Analysis for the Impacts of U.S.-China Trade Friction on China's Economy

Abstract

Abstract: The U.S.-China trade friction with upgrading tariff will directly influence China's international trade and indirectly influence the whole economic system. In this paper, the methodology of Meta-synthesis in systems science is applied to study the impacts of U.S.-China trade friction on China's economy. Based on the qualitative analysis of the transmission mechanism and the core parameters, a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model of China is built to study the quantitative impacts of U.S.-China trade friction on China's economy. Two scenarios for the U.S.-China trade friction are designed and five scenarios for the China's economic system are assumed. In the view of systems science, by applying the properties of repeated comparison and successive approximation of Meta-synthesis, the core parameters are adjusted to study the impacts of U.S.-China trade friction. The results indicate that the additional tariff imposed by the U.S. will have minor effects on China's macro economy; however, China's international trade will be negatively shocked with exports of high-end manufacturing industries significantly hurt. Imposing higher tariff by the U.S. on China's exports will further increase the negative shocks. Reducing capital-labor substitution elasticity or price elasticity of import and export will alleviate the negative impacts on China's economy. The managed floating regime on RMB exchange rate can help achieve international balance and reduce the negative shock. This paper provides policy suggestions to coping with U.S.-China trade friction.

Key words: U.S.-China trade friction, Meta-synthesis, CGE model, economic system, systems science

Bao Qin, Su Danhua, Wang Shouyang. Systematic Analysis for the Impacts of U.S.-China Trade Friction on China's Economy[J]. Management Review, 2020, 32(7): 3-16.

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