Abstract: As an open system, the internal and external factors together form the complex system operation structure of the port. This results in a random state transition of the port system. This paper combines the catastrophe theory and game theory with TEI@I as the basic theoretical framework and guiding ideology to analyze and predict the strategic choice of the Bohai Sea port in competition and cooperation. On this basis, in order to overcome the problem of overlapping information and unclear meanings of the vulnerability research in the past catastrophe theory, we apply factor rotation to further modify the catastrophe theory. In this way, we measure the vulnerability of the nine major ports in China's coastal areas and measure the impact of various factors. And use the conclusion of vulnerability measurement to select the game participants and the game strategy set. It makes up for the defects of subjectivity in the construction of existing game models. We find that in terms of port construction scale competition, whether other ports choose the strategy of upgrading depends on whether the leading port enterprises in the region can obtain excess profits; In terms of port market competition, differentiated management and characteristic management are key strategies; In terms of port cooperation, after cooperation, participation in cooperation and non-participation in cooperation ports increase monopoly profits, which is not conducive to the long-term development of regional economy. Finally, the simulation results support the conclusion of the game model. In the development of the Bohai Sea port group, the port construction scale, differentiated operation and port operation capacity construction should be increased.

Key words: TEI@I methodology, catastrophe theory, vulnerability, Bohai rim, Competition and Cooperation Strategy