Management Review ›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 45-55.

• Economic and Financial Management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Research on Risk Assessment Method for Transport Infrastructure Construction Considering the Interdependency and Stochasticity of Risks

Zhang Jin1, Suo Weilan2   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;
    2. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
  • Received:2019-09-18 Published:2020-07-10

Abstract: The construction process of transport infrastructures is always accompanied with tough challenges from multiple risk factors. Especially, the complex interdependency and high stochasticity of risks as well as the differences of countries make risk assessment more difficult. Therefore, a risk assessment method based on stochastic DEMATEL-VIKOR is proposed for transport infrastructure construction. Firstly, stochastic interdependency information on risk factors is generated from experts' judgments. The rankings and classifications of risk factors are further determined by an interdependency analysis. Subsequently, the prominence of risk factors determined by the interdependency analysis and the stochastic assessment information of multiple risk factors are integrated effectively to construct the risk index of transport infrastructure construction. Furthermore, the compromise rankings of risk indices of each country are determined according to the coefficients of decision mechanisms. Finally, an empirical study based on related data from 30 countries along the Belt and Road is conducted to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method and provide targeted implications and suggestions for risk response according to the risk assessment results. This study is helpful to ensure the accuracy of risk assessment for transport infrastructure construction from the perspectives of countries. The valuable decision references are also provided for related infrastructure enterprises to clarify the risk profile of "reaching out overseas" and response risks effectively.

Key words: risk assessment, transport infrastructure construction, risk interdependency, risk stochasticity, stochastic DEMATEL-VIKOR