A Simulation Study of the Housing Demand in China Based on System Dynamics

Abstract

Abstract: In recent years, the fluctuation of housing demand in China has intensified, which has had a tremendous impact on the real estate market. This paper comprehensively analyses the factors affecting the housing demand in China. Based on the system dynamics, this paper constructs a system model of housing demand in China to explore the development trend of housing demand in China, and then sets up different scenarios for simulation in order to provide suggestions for the stable development of housing demand in China. The results show that China's housing demand presents an inverted U-shaped development trend, and the housing demand will show a downward trend in the future. Through scenario simulation, this paper finds that the imposition of real estate tax and the abolition of pre-sale right will effectively control the housing demand in China, and the comprehensive relaxing of family planning policy can inhibit the declining trend of housing demand in the future on the basis of increasing the total population of China.

Key words: housing demand, system dynamics, simulation, policy analysis

Mou Xindi, Li Xiuting, Dong Jichang, Dong Zhi. A Simulation Study of the Housing Demand in China Based on System Dynamics[J]. Management Review, 2020, 32(6): 16-28.

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