A Construction Method of Hazard-affected Region for Disaster Scenario Evolution

Abstract

Abstract: This paper focuses on the construction method of hazard-affected regions in order to adapt to the disaster scenarios building and the inference of scenario evolution for regions with different characteristics. Disaster scenario of a region can be described through disaster consequence and evolution trends of disaster consequence. Since the states of elements at risk directly reflect the disaster consequence and the complicated interrelations between elements at risk lead to the diversity of evolution trends, elements at risk and interrelations between elements at risk are chosen as the core to construct the disaster scenario of a hazard-affected region. Firstly, from a system point of view, the components of disaster scenario are determined. Base on the evolution attribute of states of elements at risk, an Egg-Yolk model of the affected area of an element at risk is proposed and a kind of topological interrelation of impact among elements at risk is defined. On this basis, a generation process of regional interrelation network of elements at risk is proposed. Then three regions are designed to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of this method. The results show that constructing a disaster scenario with regional characteristics will help with not only the pre-event recognition and evaluation of regional disaster risk, but also the post-event analysis of disaster evolution trends.

Key words: disaster scenario, states of elements at risk, topological interrelation of impact, regional disaster risk, evolution mode

Qie Zijun, Rong Lili. A Construction Method of Hazard-affected Region for Disaster Scenario Evolution[J]. Management Review, 2020, 32(10): 276-292.

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