Management Review

›› 2019, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (6): 102-112.

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Research on Robust Decision Making Method of Nuclear Energy Technology R&D Scheme Selection

Zhang Lijie1,2, Chi Hong1,3, Qi Mingliang1,3, Yang Lei4   

  1. 1. Institute of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100000;
    3. College of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;
    4. Institute of Modern Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000
  • Received:2018-03-01 Online:2019-06-28 Published:2019-07-08

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Abstract:

Nuclear technology is not only a long process of research and development, but also a technological challenge. It is also influenced by various external factors such as national strategy, economic status, scientific research investment and other clean energy development. These have led to the complexity of the choice of nuclear energy technology. In order to reduce the risk of R & D, a good nuclear energy technology should not only be advanced in technology, but also should be realized in the time node as much as possible. In addition, in order to ensure the feasibility of the strategy of nuclear energy development, the variety use of nuclear energy technology needs to be taken into consideration. In this paper, aiming at the complexity of nuclear technology research and development, we evaluate the possibility and compatibility of the selected schemes from four indicators:research foundation, key technology complexity, state specific support and industrial application smoothness. Considering the change of external environment, we consider the impact of different scenarios on the four indicators of technological development goals (sustainability, economy, security, prevention and diffusion) weight, and use Euclidean distance to represent the robustness of technological development goals in different scenarios. Based on the constraint of demand and compatibility, a multi-objective 0-1 robust optimization model is established. In order to get index weight, we add some relational weights of index weights on the basis of utility added (UTA) inverse weight model to make the weight closer to the future situational needs. This model considers the influence of the external environment and technology uncertainty in the process of technology selection, and adds the use demand constraints, to provide decision support for future nuclear technology strategy selection. Finally an example is given to illustrate the use of the process model.

Key words: research and development scheme of nuclear energy technology, technical compatibility, realization of possibility, multi-objective 0-1 robust optimization model, technology selection