Simulation of Carbon Intensity Restriction: Macro-effect, Emission Reduction Effect and Structural Effect

Abstract

Abstract:

Administrative emission reduction measures based on carbon intensity restriction are one of China's major means of coping with climate change. The analysis of the impact of carbon intensity restriction on the economy is a significant content of the carbon emission reduction mechanism design. This paper adopts the dynamic CGE model to simulate influences of carbon intensity restriction goals and the increase in the proportion of non-fossil energy over China's macro-economy, micro-economy and carbon emission reduction from 2012 to 2030. The study shows:while moderate economic growth is maintained, the carbon intensity falls by 15.176% and 36.586% respectively in 2020 and 2030 compared with the baseline scenario but it's still a bit lower than the target carbon intensity goal; besides, carbon intensity restriction leads to a dramatic rise in China's domestic sales prices, a small increase in investment, export and import, and a slight drop in consumption; the restriction gives rise to a sharp increase in coal, crude oil and refined oil products; the output and export of the majority of non-energy departments are restrained, and domestic demand and import witness an obvious rise. Generally speaking, administrative emission reduction measures can effectively weaken the carbon intensity but cannot completely reach the carbon emission reduction goals. Therefore, it's feasible to form a long-term mechanism by implementing carbon tax and carbon transaction.

Key words: carbon intensity restriction, macro-effect, emission reduction effect, structural effect, dynamic CGE model

Dong Mei, Xu Zhangyong, Li Cunfang. Simulation of Carbon Intensity Restriction: Macro-effect, Emission Reduction Effect and Structural Effect[J]. , 2019, 31(5): 53-65.

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