Relations of Real Estate Development, Economic Growth Driving Factors, External Environment and Economic Growth Effect in China: Based on Time Series Data during 2000-2016

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on China's time series of economic data from 2000 to 2016 and the Mankiw-Romer-Weil (MRW) model, we investigate the impacts of real estate development, driving factors of economic growth and external environment on China economic growth by utilizing bounds testing approach. The empirical results show that the increase of sales of commercial housing has a positive effect on China's economic growth, but its growth effect will decrease with the increase of human capital and physical capital stock in the driving factors of economic growth. Excessive investment in real estate development has some hindrance to economic growth. And the effect of rising house prices on economic growth is unstable. Besides, the impact of the external environment on the economy (international interest rate, crude oil price, RMB exchange rate) will weaken the effect on economic growth of real estate development. Furthermore, we find that human capital plays an active role in promoting economic growth while the development of secondary industry and tertiary industry has become a significant impetus to the economic growth, but the contribution of exports to economic growth is not stable. Finally, under the premise that the motive force of economic growth has an impact on economic growth, the impact of real estate development on economic growth will be reduced.

Key words: real estate, effect on economic growth, bounds testing approach, Mankiw-Romer-Weil model, driving factors of economic growth

Liu Chao, Li Jiangyuan, Wang Chao, Gao Yang, Liu Chenqi, Yu Haibo, Li Jian. Relations of Real Estate Development, Economic Growth Driving Factors, External Environment and Economic Growth Effect in China: Based on Time Series Data during 2000-2016[J]. , 2018, 30(8): 16-31.

References

[1] 王文甫,张南. 政府消费、政府投资、净出口和有效汇率——基于中国的经验和解释[J]. 国际贸易问题, 2015,(12):145-157
[2] Dowdell E. G. The Multiplier[J]. Oxford Economic Papers, 1940,os-4(1):23-38
[3] 李美云. 我国房地产税课税对象正当性考量[J]. 中国政法大学学报, 2017,(1):88-98
[4] 张一,惠晓峰,吴宝秀. 宏观经济信息发布对国际金融危机传染效应的影响研究[J]. 管理评论, 2017,29(4):3-11
[5] Quigley J. M. Real Estate Prices and Economic Cycles[J]. Berkeley Program on Housing & Urban Policy Working Paper, 1999,2(1):1-20
[6] Hong L. The Dynamic Relationship between Real Estate Investment and Economic Growth:Evidence from Prefecture City Panel Data in China[J]. Ieri Procedia, 2014,7:2-7
[7] Kong Y., Glascock J., Ran L. A. An Investigation into Real Estate Investment and Economic Growth in China:A Dynamic Panel Data Approach[J]. Sustainability, 2016,8(1):66-66
[8] Liang X. Empiric Study of House Prices Fluctuation and Mortgage on Economic Growth[C]. Proceedings of the 6th International Asia Conference on Industrial Engineering and Management Innovation. Paris:Atlantis Press, 2016
[9] 原鹏飞,冯蕾. 经济增长、收入分配与贫富分化——基于DCGE模型的房地产价格上涨效应研究[J]. 经济研究, 2014,49(9):77-90
[10] 钟伟,魏伟. 经济增长、汇率和房地产:国际比较及对中国的启示[J]. 国际金融研究, 2014,(6):3-9
[11] 段进,曾琦,张乐天. 银行信贷、房地产价格与经济增长的非线性关系研究基于省际面板平滑转换模型的实证检验[J]. 财经理论与实践, 2016,37(4):18-24
[12] 李习平,张华容,武淑琴. 后危机时代房屋销售价格影响因子研究[J]. 统计与决策, 2011,(17):33-36
[13] 许宪春,贾海,李皎,等. 房地产经济对中国国民经济增长的作用研究[J]. 中国社会科学, 2015,(1):84-101
[14] Ren Y., Yuan Y. Why the Housing Sector Leads the Whole Economy:The Importance of Collateral Constraints and News Shocks[J]. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2014,13(2):323-341
[15] Guo J., Yuan J., Chen H. Analysis on the Influences of Local Economic Growth about Real Estate in Jilin[J]. Energy Procedia, 2011,11:3406-3414
[16] Lester T. W. Dedicating New Real Estate Transfer Taxes for Energy Efficiency:A Revenue Option for Scaling up Green Retrofit Programs[J]. Energy Policy, 2013,62(5):809-820
[17] Moura M. C. P., Smith S. J., Belzer D. B. 120 Years of U.S. Residential Housing Stock and Floor Space[J]. Plos One, 2015,10(8):e0134135
[18] Coulson N. E., Kim M. S. Residential Investment, Non-residential Investment and GDP[J]. Real Estate Economics, 2000,28(2):233-247
[19] Wigren R., Wilhelmsson M. Construction Investments and Economic Growth in Western Europe[J]. Journal of Policy Modeling, 2007,29(3):439-451
[20] Cui X. Z., Wang Y. W. Land Use Policy for Real Estate Price Regulation:An Empirical Quantification on Price of Urban Land and Housing during the Economic Growth in China[C]. Proceedings of 2012 International Conference on Construction & Real Estate Management, 2012
[21] 刘园,韩斌. 我国银行信贷与房地产价格关系的实证研究[J]. 统计与决策, 2012,(17):154-157
[22] 杨继波,孔令丞. 上海市房地产开发投资引领经济增长实证研究[J]. 华东经济管理, 2013,27(7):1-4
[23] 马宇,王竹芹. 房地产投资、体现型技术进步与经济增长质量——基于我国省际面板数据的实证研究[J]. 云南财经大学学报, 2014,30(4):68-77
[24] 张洪,金杰,全诗凡. 房地产投资、经济增长与空间效应——基于70个大中城市的空间面板数据实证研究[J]. 南开经济研究, 2014,(1):42-58
[25] 史志乐. 中国经济增长影响因素的实证研究[J]. 统计与决策, 2016,(13):113-116
[26] Mankiw N. G., Romer D., Weil D. N. A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1992,107(2):407-437
[27] 丁琳琳,吴群. 环境约束下中国工业用地投入对经济增长的影响——基于"绿色索洛模型"的分析[J]. 资源科学, 2017,39(4):620-628
[28] Najeb M. A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth:Old and New[J]. Journal of Economics & International Finance, 2014,6(3):47-61
[29] 李永,付智博,李海英. 中国石油进口贸易联系稳定性测度——对1992-2012年经验数据的考察[J]. 管理评论, 2016,28(9):17-30
[30] 严成樑. 资本投入对我国经济增长的影响——基于拓展的MRW框架的分析[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2011,28(6):3-20
[31] Dolde W., Tirtiroglu D. Housing Price Volatility Changes and Their Effects[J]. Real Estate Economics, 2010,30(1):41-66
[32] Miles W. Exchange Rates, Inflation and Growth in Small, Open Economies:A Difference-in-differences Approach[J]. Applied Economics, 2008,40(3):341-348
[33] Pesaran M. H., Shin Y., Smith R. J. Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001,16(3):289-326
[34] Paresh K. N. The Saving and Investment Nexus for China:Evidence from Cointegration Tests[J]. Applied Economics, 2005,37(17):1979-1990
[35] Cheng X., Liao Z. Select the Valid and Relevant Moments:An Information-based LASSO for GMM with Many Moments[J]. Ssrn Electronic Journal, 2015,186(2):443-464
[36] Bozdogan H. Model Selection and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC):The General Theory and its Analytical Extensions[J]. Psychometrika, 1987,52(3):345-370
[37] Denison E. F. The Sources of Economic Growth in the United States and the Alternatives before Us[M].New York:Committee for Economic Development, 1962
[38] 赵晗,肖探,冉美丽. 房地产市场与金融市场联动关系的实证研究[J]. 财经科学, 2012,(12):32-39
[39] 刘晨晖. 高房价加剧了省际经济发展不平衡吗?——基于中心-外围视角的测算与经验分析[J]. 财经问题研究, 2017,(2):97-104
[40] 沈利生,乔红芳. 重估中国的资本存量:1952-2012[J]. 吉林大学社会科学学报, 2015,55(4):122-133
[41] Lutz W., Samir K. C. Global Human Capital:Integrating Education and Population[J]. Science, 2011,333(6042):587-592
[42] Neycheva M. Secondary Versus Higher Education for Growth:The Case of Three Countries with Different Human Capital's Structure and Quality[J]. Quality & Quantity, 2016,50(6):1-27
[43] 蔡跃洲,付一夫. 全要素生产率增长中的技术效应与结构效应——基于中国宏观和产业数据的测算及分解[J]. 经济研究, 2017,52(1):72-88
[44] 李献波,林雄斌,孙东琪,等. 中国区域产业结构变动对经济增长的影响[J]. 经济地理, 2016,36(5):100-106
[45] Behmiri N. B., Manso J. R. P. How Crude Oil Consumption Impacts on Economic Growth of Sub-Saharan Africa[J]. Energy, 2013,54(2):74-83
[46] Derosa D. F. China's Defense of the Peg Perpetuates Central Planning[J]. Cato J, 2005,25(1):49-54
[47] 杨柳,李力,吴婷. 预期冲击与中国房地产市场波动异象[J]. 经济学(季刊), 2017,16(1):321-348
[48] 谢经荣,吕萍,乔志敏. 房地产经济学.第3版[M]. 北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2013
[49] Mankiw N. G., Weil D. N. The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market[J]. Regional Science & Urban Economics, 1991,19(2):235-238
[50] 陈斌开,张川川. 人力资本和中国城市住房价格[J]. 中国社会科学, 2016,(5):43-64
[51] Gori L., Guerrini L., Sodini M. A Model of Economic Growth with Physical and Human Capital:The Role of Time Delays[J]. Chaos, 2016,26(9):61-74
[52] 王擎,韩鑫韬. 货币政策能盯住资产价格吗?——来自中国房地产市场的证据[J]. 金融研究, 2009,(8):114-123
[53] 梁云芳,高铁梅,贺书平. 房地产市场与国民经济协调发展的实证分析[J]. 中国社会科学, 2006,(3):74-84
[54] Iqbal N., Daly V. Rent Seeking Opportunities and Economic Growth in Transitional Economies[J]. Economic Modelling, 2014,37(574):16-22