Forecast of China's Economic Growth under New Normal Conditions from the Perspective of Monetary Policy Regulation

Abstract

Abstract:

The game between speed and quality of China's economic growth under the new normal conditions is a hotspot and difficult issue in the current social development. Traditional monetary policy focuses on the regulation of economic growth rate, but the proposed concept of the new normal of economic development puts forward new requirements for monetary policy regulation. This paper selects the monetary policy control and economic growth related variables data from 1985 to 2016 to research the relationship between the regulation of monetary policy and the speed and quality of economic growth under the new normal conditions. In this paper, the global optimization of genetic algorithms is combined with the weight and threshold optimization of BP neural networks to construct the relation model of monetary policy regulate and economic growth. This model simulates the interaction between monetary policy regulation and economic growth rate and quality under the new normal conditions. The GDP growth rate and the tertiary industry contribution rate of the forecast analysis results in 2017 showed by the model mean that the GDP growth of 2017 will slow down and be in the interval[6.3389%, 6.6639%] and the contribution of the tertiary industry will be in[52.2810%, 54.9620%]. Furthermore, the increase of contribution of the tertiary industry has accelerated since 1985, especially since 2013, which indicates that the third industry will play a major rule in economic development and the economic structure is being optimized.

Key words: the new normal conditions, monetary policy regulation, speed of economic growth, quality of economic growth BP neural network optimized by genetic algorithm

Liu Chao, Jiang Yujie, Ma Yujie, Zhou Wenwen, Liu Chenqi. Forecast of China's Economic Growth under New Normal Conditions from the Perspective of Monetary Policy Regulation[J]. , 2018, 30(6): 28-39.

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