The Economic Effect of Trade Liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) States Under the Background of the Silk Road Economic Belt——A Policy Simulation Based on GTAP Model

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 3-12.

The Economic Effect of Trade Liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) States Under the Background of the Silk Road Economic Belt——A Policy Simulation Based on GTAP Model

Shi Minjun^1,2, Meili Guli^1,3, Huang Wen^1,4, Li Na¹

1. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
2. School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872;
3. the Leading Group Office for Opening-up Affairs of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830001;
4. Guangyuan Development And Reform Commission, Guangyuan 628000

Received:2015-04-09 Online:2018-02-28 Published:2018-02-10

Abstract

Abstract:

Promoting the trade liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) related states is one of strategic options to ac-celerate the interconnectivity construction of countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt. Based on the GTAP model and scenario simu-lation, this paper analyzes the economic effects of trade liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) related states, as well as the influence of trade relations between China and countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt. The simulation results show that, the trade liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) related states can help China and relevant countries effectively deal with the impact from Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan customs union, help to improve the economy of China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the trade relationship among these countries, so as to promote the implementation of strategic conception of "One Belt and One Road". And as the scope of free trade area from member states expands to all relevant countries of Shanghai Cooperation Organi-zation (SCO), the economy of China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the trade relation among these countries would gain more benefits.

Key words: Silk Road Economic Belt, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, trade liberalization, GTAP model

Shi Minjun, Meili Guli, Huang Wen, Li Na. The Economic Effect of Trade Liberalization of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) States Under the Background of the Silk Road Economic Belt——A Policy Simulation Based on GTAP Model[J]. , 2018, 30(2): 3-12.

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