Management Review

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 222-230.

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System-dynamics-based Emergency Strategy Analysis for Typhoon Disaster

Yu Xiaobing1,2, Cao Jie1,2, Wang Xuming3, Cai Mei2   

  1. 1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;
    2. School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;
    3. School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
  • Received:2015-10-23 Online:2018-02-28 Published:2018-02-10

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Abstract:

China is one of the hardest hit regions by typhoon. A typhoon disaster emergency model is established based on system dynam-ics in this paper. A multi-objective dynamics model is proposed to consider the degree of public panic and loss rate and to discover effec-tive management policies. Different from other existing studies, both natural and social factors are introduced. The management mecha-nisms including government, flood control and drought relief headquarters and public are considered by multi-Agent model and simulation theory. Water disaster caused by typhoon Fitow is taken as instance in Yuyao City, Zhejiang Province. The empirical study demonstrates that government emergency scheduling, cooperation of flood control and drought relief headquarters and participation of citizens directly influence loss and public panic. Numerical simulation indicates that three factors are of roughly equal importance. It is useful to improve theoretical level of emergency management system, especially to deal with the typhoon. The results also prove that multiple subjects in-cluding government, flood control and drought relief headquarters, citizens should respond to typhoon disaster positively and actively.

Key words: system dynamics, typhoon disaster, emergency management, emergency strategy