Abstract:

Promoted by a series of national policies, agricultural waste management by third parties has been actively explored by the way of franchising, investment grants and financial subsidies in many parts of China. The issue of how to ensure sustainable operation of the mode is becoming a common concern of the government and scholars. This paper assumes the sustainable operation of the mode as a criterion for evaluating government policy efficiency, develops a system dynamics model and sets corresponding subsidy policy parameters to simulate the trend of five variables in organic fertilizer subsidy, concessionary price subsidy for biogas energy utilization (centralized supply as fuel or power generation), and biogas raw materials subsidy policy. The initial data used is collected from Luofang agricultural wastes governance large-scale biogas project of Jiangxi ZhengHe Environmental Engineering Co., LTD. The result shows that the current concession price of biogas can guarantee the target scale of centralized gas supply within five years; the power generation capacity utilization and the accumulative income of the third-party are sensitive to the concession price of biogas power generation network; there must be reasonable subsidies for organic fertilizer prices to realize the commercial production of organic fertilizer. Moreover, based on the results of three policies simulation and the reference range of the policy parameters, three comprehensive optimization scenarios are designed and simulated to investigate the optimal policy parameters.

Key words: agricultural waste, third-party management, policy efficiency, system dynamics simulation