[1] Fama E. F., French K. R. Business Conditions and Expected Returns on Stocks and Bonds[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 1989,25(1):23-49
[2] Lettau M., Ludvigson S. Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns[J]. Journal of Finance, 2001,56(3):815-849
[3] Guo H., Whitelaw R. F. Uncovering the Risk-Return Relation in the Stock Market[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2006,61(3):1433-1463
[4] Yogo M. A. Consumption-Based Explanation of Expected Stock Returns[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2006,61(2):539-580
[5] Andersen T. G. Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility[J]. Journal of Finance, 1996,51(1):169-204
[6] Cochrane J. H. Asset Pricing[M]. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press, 2001
[7] Merton R. C. An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model[J]. Econometrica, 1973,41(5):867-887
[8] Ghysels E., Santa-Clara P., Valkanov R. There Is a Risk-return Trade-off After All[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2005,76(3):509-548
[9] Lundblad C. The Risk Return Trade off in the Long Run: 1836-2003[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2007,85(1):123-150
[10] Adrian T., Rosenberg J. Stock Returns and Volatility: Pricing the Short-Run and Long-Run Components of Market Risk[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2008,63(6):2997-3030
[11] Bali T. G., Demirtas K. O., Levy H. Is There an Intertemporal Relation between Downside Risk and Expected Returns?[J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2009,44(4):883-909
[12] Müller G., Durand R. B., Maller R. A. The Risk-return Tradeoff: A COGARCH Analysis of Merton's Hypothesis[J]. Journal of Empirical Finance, 2011,18(2):306-320
[13] Veldkamp L. L. Slow Boom, Sudden Crash[J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 2005,124(2):230-257
[14] Jin L., Myers S. R-Squared around the World: New Theory and New Tests[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2006,79(2):257-292
[15] Maheu J. M., McCurdy T. H. News Arrival, Jump Dynamics, and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2004,59(2):755-793
[16] Sornette D., Zhou W. X. Non-Parametric Determination of Real-time Lag Structure between Two Time Series: The 'Optimal Thermal Causal Path' Method[J]. Quantitative Finance, 2005,5(6):577-591
[17] Duffee G. R. Time Variation in the Covariance between Stock Returns and Consumption Growth[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2005,60(4):1673-1712
[18] Hartmann D., Kempa B., Pierdzioch C. Economic and Financial Crises and the Predictability of US Stock Returns[J]. Journal of Empirical Finance, 2008,15(3):468-480
[19] 王春峰,金德环,蒋祥林,罗建春,韩东,李双成,董兴,李吉栋.波动特征——有哪些影响因素[R]//成思危.诊断与治疗:揭示中国的股票市场[M]. 北京: 经济科学出版社, 2003
[20] 王虎,王宇伟,范从来.股票价格具有货币政策指示器功能吗——来自中国1997~2006年的经验证据[J]. 金融研究, 2008,(6):94-108
[21] Engle R. F. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation[J]. Econometrica, 1982,50(4):987-1007
[22] Bollerslev T. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 1986,31(3):307-327
[23] Nelson D. B. Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach[J]. Econometrica, 1991,59(2):347-370
[24] Engle R. F., Lilien D. M., Robins R. P. Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The ARCH-M Model[J]. Econometrica, 1987,55(2):391-407
[25] Engle R., Lee G. A Permanent and Transitory Model of Stock Return Volatility[R]//Engle R. and White H. (eds) Cointegration, Causality and Forecasting: A Festschrift in Honor of Clive W. J. Granger[M]. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 1999
[26] Glosten L. R., Jagannathan R., Runkle D. E. On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks[J]. The Journal of Finance, 1993,48(5):1779-1801
[27] Campbell J. Y., Hentschel L. No News Is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 1992,31(3):281-318
[28] Li Q., Yang J., Hsiao C., Chang Y. J. The Relationship between Stock Returns and Volatility in International Stock Markets[J]. Journal of Empirical Finance, 2005,12(5):650-665
[29] Song H., Liu X., Romilly P. Stock Returns and Volatility: An Empirical Study of Chinese Stock Markets[J]. International Review of Applied Economics, 1998,12(1):129-139
[30] Lee C. F., Chen G., Rui O. M. Stock Returns and Volatility on China's Stock Markets[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2001,24(4):523-544
[31] Kong D., Liu H., Wang L. Is There a Risk-return Trade-off? Evidences from Chinese Stock Markets[J]. Frontiers of Economics in China, 2008,3(1):1-23
[32] McQueen G., Thorley S. Bubbles, Stock Returns, and Duration Dependence[J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 1994,29(3):379-401
[33] Lunde A., Timmermann A. Duration Dependence in Stock Prices[J]. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2004,22(3): 253-321
[34] Chen S. W., Shen C. H. Evidence of the Duration-dependence from the Stock Markets in the Pacific Rim Economies[J]. Applied Economics, 2007,39(11):1461-1474
[35] Chong T. T. L., Li Z., Chen H., Hinich M. J. An Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Stock Market Cycle[J]. Journal of Applied Statistics, 2010,37(8):1407-1416
[36] Edwards S., Biscarri J. G., De Gracia F. P. Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003,22(7):925-955
[37] Mikhail O. No More Rocking Horses: Trading Business Cycle Depth for Duration Using an Economy Specific Characteristic[DB/OL]. http://www.bus.ucf.edu/wp/Working%20Papers/2004/04-03Mikhail.pdf, 2004
[38] Fisher K. L. The Wall Street Waltz: 90 Visual Perspectives, Illustrated Lessons from Financial Cycles and Trends[M]. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, 2007
[39] Chen S. S. Predicting the Bear Stock Market: Macroeconomic Variables as Leading Indicators[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2009,33(2):211-223
[40] Durland J. M., McCurdy T. H. Duration-dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of US GNP Growth[J]. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1994,12(3):279-288
[41] Galiani S., Hopenhayn H. A. Duration and Risk of Unemployment in Argentina[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 2003,71(1):199-212
[42] Boldrin M., Levine D. K. Growth Cycles and Market Crashes[J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 2001,96(1):13-39
[43] Von Peter G. Asset Prices and Banking Distress: A Macroeconomic Approach[J]. Journal of Financial Stability, 2009,5(3):298-319
[44] Henry P. B. Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2000,55(2):529-564
[45] Black F. Noise[J]. Journal of Finance, 1986,41(3):529-543
[46] Andersen T. G., Bollerslev T., Diebold F. X., Vega C. Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2002
[47] Gilbert T. Information Aggregation around Macroeconomic Announcements: Revisions Matter[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2011,101(1):114-131
[48] Van Nieuwerburgh S., Veldkamp L. Learning Asymmetries in Real Business Cycles[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2006,53(4):753-772
[49] Brockman P., Liebenberg I., Schutte M. Comovement, Information Production, and the Business Cycle[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2010,97(1):107-129
[50] Menzly L., Ozbas O. Market Segmentation and Cross-Predictability of Returns[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2010,65(4):1555-1580
[51] Cohen L., Frazzini A. Economic Links and Predictable Returns[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2008,63(4):1977-2011
[52] Hong H., Torous W., Valkanov R. Do Industries Lead Stock Markets?[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2007,83(2):367-396
[53] Hong H., Yogo M. Digging into Commodities[R]. Working Paper, Princeton University, 2010
[54] Hong D., Hong H., Ungureanu A. Word of Mouth and Gradual Information Diffusion in Asset Markets[R]. Working Paper, Princeton University, 2010
[55] Yalçn A. Gradual Information Diffusion and Contrarian Strategies[J]. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2008,48(3):579-604
[56] Hong H., Stein J. C. A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets[J]. The Journal of Finance, 1999,54(6):2143-2184
[57] Li Z., Sun J., Wang S. An Information Diffusion-based Model of Oil Futures Price[J]. Energy Economics, 2013,36,518-525
[58] Xue Y., Gençay R. Hierarchical Information and the Rate of Information Diffusion[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2012,36(9):1372-1401
[59] Brunnermeier M. K. Information Leakage and Market Efficiency[J]. Review of Financial Studies, 2005,18(2):417-457
[60] Ai H. Information Quality and Long-Run Risk: Asset Pricing Implications[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2010,65(4):1333-1367
[61] Grossman S. On the Efficiency of Competitive Stock Markets Where Traders Have Diverse Information[J]. The Journal of Finance, 1976,31(2):573-585
[62] De Meyer B. Price Dynamics on a Stock Market with Asymmetric Information[J]. Games and Economic Behavior, 2010,69(1):42-71
[63] Ozsoylev H. N., Walden J. Asset Pricing in Large Information Networks[J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 2011,146(6):2252-2280
[64] Peng L., Xiong W. Time to Digest and Volatility Dynamics[R]. Working Paper, Baruch College and Princeton University, 2003
[65] Hong H., Lim T., Stein J. C. Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2000,55(1):265-295
[66] Fleming J., Kirby C., Ostdiek B. Stochastic Volatility, Trading Volume, and the Daily Flow of Information[J]. Journal of Business, 2006,79(5):1551-1590
[67] Berger D., Chaboud A., Hjalmarsson E. What Drives Volatility Persistence in the Foreign Exchange Market?[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2009,94(2):192-213
[68] Flannery M. J., Protopapadakis A. A. Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns[J]. Review of Financial Studies, 2002,15(3):751-782
[69] Rangel J. G. Macroeconomic News, Announcements, and Stock Market Jump Intensity Dynamics[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2011,35(5):1263-1276
[70] Foster A. J. Volume-volatility Relationships for Crude Oil Futures Markets[J]. Journal of Futures Markets, 1995,15(8):929-951
[71] Moosa I. A., Silvapulle P. The Price-volume Relationship in the Crude Oil Futures Market Some Results Based on Linear and Nonlinear Causality Testing[J]. International Review of Economics & Finance, 2000,9(1):11-30
[72] Bank M., Larch M., Peter G. Google Search Volume and Its Influence on Liquidity and Returns of German Stocks[J]. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 2011,25(3):239-264
[73] Da Z., Engelberg J., Gao P. In Search of Attention[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2011,66(5):1461-1499
[74] 刘颖,吕本富,彭赓.网络搜索对股票市场的预测能力[J]. 理论分析与实证检验, 2011,481(1):172-180 |