管理评论

›› 2017, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (8): 251-262,272.

• 案例研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

仪式性公共活动中踩踏风险及防范机制

温志强1, 滑冬玲2, 郝雅立3   

  1. 1. 天津师范大学政治文化与政治文明建设研究院, 天津 300387;
    2. 天津师范大学经济学院, 天津 300387;
    3. 南开大学周恩来政府管理学院, 天津 300071
  • 收稿日期:2017-01-17 出版日期:2017-08-28 发布日期:2017-09-26
  • 作者简介:温志强,天津师范大学政治文化与政治文明建设研究院教授,硕士生导师,博士,北京大学公共管理学博士后;滑冬玲,天津师范大学经济学院教授,硕士生导师,博士;郝雅立,南开大学周恩来政府管理学院博士研究生。
  • 基金资助:

    国家社科重大项目（14ZDB153）；国家社会科学基金项目（13BGL134）。

Stampede Risk and Precautionary Mechanism in Ritual Public Events——Exemplified by the Crowded Stampedes in Shanghai

Wen Zhiqiang1, Hua Dongling2, Hao Yali3   

  1. 1. Research Institution of Political Culture and Political Civilization, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387;
    2. School of Economics, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387;
    3. Zhou Enlai School of Government, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071
  • Received:2017-01-17 Online:2017-08-28 Published:2017-09-26

PDF (PC)

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摘要：

群体会聚活动是一项涉及到人、物、环境和管理等诸多因素在"自组织"秩序中相互配合、相互支持、相互补充的活动。通过上海外滩踩踏事故分析，认为每一起群体踩踏事故都是历经"和平——滞留——踩踏"的过程逐步酝酿和发展的。因个体行动引发的高密度人群拥挤踩踏事故有"超车式"、"对流式"和"汇流式"三种类型。仪式性公共活动要在畅通有序的信息支付和信息接收互动中，以群众会聚风险预警制度为核心加强相关机制的良好运转，增强政府的应急能力和群众的安全意识，从而实现群体活动的有序展开。为此，增强政府人员的责任意识是防范仪式性公共活动中踩踏风险的基础，弥补制度与规则漏洞和缝隙是前提，并需要进一步提升群众在高密度人群中的防干扰能力和自我修复能力。

关键词: 仪式性公共活动, 群众会聚, 管理要素, 踩踏预警, 协同机制

Abstract:

Mass gathering is a kind of activity in which many factors, such as people, materials, environment and management, interact with, support and supplement each other in a self-organized manner. By analyzing the stampede accident in Shanghai, we find that a stampede accident usually comes into being through three states of crowd:orderliness, stagnation and stampede. High-density crowd stampede accident caused by individual action occurs when three kinds of people flow appear:surpassing flow, convective flow and converging flow. Ritual public activity should be operated in the smooth and orderly interaction of information payment and information reception, take risk early warning system as the core to strengthen the relevant mechanisms, and enhance the government's ability to respond and the safety awareness of the masses. Thus enhancing the sense of responsibility of government is the basis for preventing ritual public activities and making up for the system and rules loopholes and gaps is the precondition. We also need to further enhance the anti-interference ability and self-repair ability of masses in high-density crowd.

Key words: ritual public activities, mass gathering, management elements, trampling warning, synergistic mechanism