数字经济是推动国内大循环的法宝吗？——基于非竞争型数字经济投入产出表

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 确立国内大循环的主体地位是新发展格局的核心要义，数字经济作为新质生产力的核心驱动能否提升国内循环的规模和质量，关系着中国经济发展战略的协调性和有效性。本文从需求来源和要素供给两个维度将国内生产的最终品价值划分为4部分，并根据对内需引发的国外增加值的不同理解，提出了宽、窄两种口径的国内大循环测度指标。通过构建2007—2020年时间序列非竞争型数字经济投入产出模型，使用结构分解分析（SDA）方法，首次从增加值系数、生产技术、最终需求结构三方面实证研究了数字经济对双循环格局的影响。研究发现：以数字经济为代表的新质生产力发展与构建新发展格局的战略目标相辅相成，数字经济显著提升了内需引发的国内增加值占比，强化了国内循环的主体地位。这一效应是通过数字产业化的协同发展、数实融合度提升和最终需求结构中数字经济消费与投资占比上升实现的。中国在数字产品制造领域具有较强的外向依赖性，充分发挥数字经济对国内循环的促进作用，需要突破关键核心技术、增强高端制造自主可控能力，推动数字技术与实体经济深度融合，提高国内产业链的完整性和竞争力。

关键词: 数字经济, 双循环, 投入产出模型, 结构分解分析

Abstract: Establishing the dominant position of domestic circulation is the core essence of the new development paradigm. The potential of digital economy as a new engine for economic development to enhance both the scale and quality of domestic circulation is closely related to the coordination and effectiveness of China’s major economic development strategies. This paper divides the value of domestic production into four parts from the perspectives of demand sources and factor supply. It proposes two approaches, broad and narrow, for measuring domestic circulation, based on different interpretations of the foreign value-added generated by domestic demand. By constructing a non-competitive digital economic input-output model for the period 2007 to 2020 and employing Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) method, this study empirically investigates the impact of digital economy on the dual circulation pattern from both demand and supply sides. The research findings reveal that the development of digital economy significantly increases the proportion of domestic value-added triggered by domestic demand, thereby strengthening the dominant position of domestic circulation. This effect is achieved through the coordinated development in the intermediate input structure, the enhancement of digital-real economy integration, and the increasing share of digital economy consumption and investment in the final demand structure. China faces challenges in the digital product manufacturing sector, necessitating the overcoming of core technological bottlenecks to fully harness the role of digital economy in enhancing the quality of domestic circulation and achieving the localization of key industrial chains.

Key words: digital economy, dual circulation, input-output model, structural decomposition analysis

孙嘉璐, 许健, 李钏, 苏琦, 江祉健. 数字经济是推动国内大循环的法宝吗？——基于非竞争型数字经济投入产出表[J]. 管理评论, 2025, 37(11): 94-109.

Sun Jialu, Xu Jian, Li Chuan, Su Qi, Jiang Zhijian. Is Digital Economy the Key to Driving Domestic Circulation?—Based on Non-competitive Digital Economic Input-output Table[J]. Management Review, 2025, 37(11): 94-109.

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