“一带一路”倡议促进区域平衡充分发展了吗?——来自共建国家与国内省域的经验证据

摘要/Abstract

摘要： “双循环”新发展格局与“一带一路”倡议的理念具有一脉相承性，为“一带一路”倡议的持续推进提供了新契机，为区域平衡充分发展的研究提供了新模式。本文以多维测度设计为切入点，构建了双视角下区域发展不平衡不充分的研究框架；并基于政策评估的基本思想，从共建国家和国内省域两个层面，量化检验了“一带一路”倡议对区域平衡充分发展的影响效应。研究发现：“一带一路”倡议能够促进区域平衡充分发展。一方面，“一带一路”倡议能够显著抑制共建国家发展的不平衡不充分程度，尤其体现在产业结构差异与政策治理差异缩小两个维度；另一方面，“一带一路”倡议可有效推动国内沿线省域与其他省域之间的平衡充分发展程度，重点体现在经济发展差距与市场需求差距缩小两个维度。此外，“一带一路”倡议对于不平衡不充分发展的负向抑制效应呈现区域异质性特征，在中东欧地区作用效果最强、东北亚地区最弱。由此，可从拓展经济体合作范围、完善产业分工协作、强化要素自由流动和扩大贸易投资等方面纵深推进“一带一路”倡议的广度与深度，为区域平衡充分发展的推进提供政策支撑。

关键词: 一带一路"倡议, 新发展格局, 区域发展, 政策评估, 合成控制法

Abstract: The ‘Double Cycle’ strategy launched by China provides a new opportunity for the continuous and stable advancement of the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative, and also provides a new model for regional development research. In light of a multi-dimensional measurement design, this paper constructs a research framework for the inadequacy and imbalance of regional development from the perspective of domestic and international dual cycles, and discusses the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on the adequacy and balance of regional development from the international and domestic levels. We find that, The Belt and Road Initiative can promote the balance and adequacy of regional development. On the one hand, the Belt and Road Initiative plays a significant role in reducing the imbalanced and insufficient development among countries along B&R, especially reflected in the reduction of industrial structure differences and policy governance differences. On the other hand, the Belt and Road Initiative promotes balanced and full development among China’s provinces along B&R and other provinces in China, especially as evidenced by the narrowing gap in economic development and market demand. In addition, the negative inhibitory effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on the imbalanced and inadequate development is characterized by regional heterogeneity, with the strongest effect in Central and Eastern Europe and the smallest effect in Northeast Asia. Therefore, the breadth and depth of the Belt and Road Initiative can be further promoted in terms of expanding cooperation with countries along B&R and other economies, improving industrial division of labor, strengthening the free flow of factors, and expanding the scope of trade and investment, so as to provide policy support for the balance and adequacy of regional development.

Key words: the Belt and Road Initiative, new development pattern, regional development, policy evaluation, synthetic control method

徐生霞, 刘强, 杨家辉. “一带一路”倡议促进区域平衡充分发展了吗?——来自共建国家与国内省域的经验证据[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(10): 35-48.

Xu Shengxia, Liu Qiang, Yang Jiahui. Has the Belt and Road Initiative Promoted Regional Balanced and Full Development? Empirical Evidence from Countries along B&R and Domestic Provinces[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(10): 35-48.

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