管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 42-52.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

省域视角下中国经济双循环格局测度及演化特征分析

张一兵1, 李善同2, 何建武2, 周明生1,3   

  1. 1. 首都经济贸易大学经济学院, 北京 100070;
    2. 国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部, 北京 100010;
    3. 北京财贸职业学院金融学院, 北京 101101
  • 收稿日期:2023-08-10 出版日期:2024-01-28 发布日期:2024-03-06
  • 通讯作者: 周明生(通讯作者),首都经济贸易大学经济学院教授,博士生导师,博士。
  • 作者简介:张一兵,首都经济贸易大学经济学院博士研究生;李善同,国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部研究员;何建武,国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部副部长、研究员,博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目（71733003）。

Measurement and Evolution Analysis of China's Economic Dual Circulation Pattern from a Provincial Perspective

Zhang Yibing1, Li Shantong2, He Jianwu2, Zhou Mingsheng1,3   

  1. 1. School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070;
    2. Development Strategy and Regional Economic Research Department of the DRC, Beijing 100010;
    3. School of Finance, Beijing College of Finance and Commerce, Beijing 101101
  • Received:2023-08-10 Online:2024-01-28 Published:2024-03-06

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摘要： 本文根据最终需求来源渠道将国内、国际双循环进一步扩展为省内循环、省际循环、国外循环和交互循环四部分，并基于投入产出模型构建了中国省级层面双循环格局的测度指标，系统分析了1987—2017年间各省份的经济循环结构特征和演变趋势，厘清了省级层面双循环格局的表现特征。研究发现：第一，省内循环比重持续下降，但其在地区经济中仍有重要影响，尤其是在人口规模大且产业体系相对完整的地区，省内循环的经济作用较为突出。第二，随着国内基础设施的完善和区域分工的细化，省际循环比重显著上升，且省际循环的经济效益在空间上较分散，受益省份更多。第三，国外循环比重整体呈现先上升后下降的变动特点，2008年后外部环境发生变化，国际市场对各省份经济的拉动作用放缓，国外循环整体比重有所下降。第四，交互循环比重呈现出波动上升趋势。近年来，随着开放程度加深和产业升级，加工贸易比重逐步下降，而需要内外协同、分工合作的生产在增加，国内循环与国际循环联系越发紧密。

关键词: 双循环格局, 省域经济发展, 投入产出分析

Abstract: This paper divides, by the final demand source channel, the domestic and international dual circulation into four parts:intra-provincial circulation, inter-provincial circulation, foreign circulation and interactive circulation. Then, based on the input-output model, this paper constructs measurement indicators for the dual circulation pattern at the provincial level in China to systematically analyze the circular structure characteristics and evolution trends of each province from 1987 to 2017, and clarify the performance characteristics of the new development pattern at the provincial level. The research above reaches four conclusions. Firstly, intra-provincial circulation accounts for a declining percentage, but still has an important impact on the economy, especially in regions with a large population and a relatively complete industrial system, where the economic role of intra-provincial circulation is more prominent. Secondly, with the improvement of domestic infrastructure and the refinement of regional division of labor, the share of inter-provincial circulation has significantly increased, and the economic benefits of inter-provincial circulation are more dispersed in space, benefiting more provinces. Thirdly, the overall trend of international circulation is characterized by an upward trend followed by a downward trend. After 2008, the external environment has changed, and the driving force of the international market on the economy of various provinces has slowed down, resulting in a decrease in the overall proportion of international circulation. Fourthly, the domestic and international interaction cycle shows a fluctuating upward trend. In recent years, with the deepening of openness and industrial upgrading, the proportion of processing trade has gradually decreased, and the production that requires internal and external coordination and division of labor cooperation is increasing. The connection between domestic circulation and international circulation is becoming increasingly close.

Key words: dual circulation, regional development, input-output analysis