经济-能源-环境系统耦合协调发展的动态演化与影响要素研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 我国经济发展、能源消耗与环境治理之间的矛盾愈发尖锐，经济-能源-环境（3E）系统耦合协调发展成为有效推动经济绿色低碳转型的必然选择。基于此，本文利用2004—2018年中国省域面板数据，使用耦合协调度与空间面板模型测算29个省份（港澳台、西藏与云南除外）3E系统的耦合协调度，考察其动态演化规律与空间溢出效应，并对3E系统耦合协调发展的影响要素进行准确识别与政策讨论。结果表明：中国省域3E系统的耦合协调度虽有所提升，但“两极分化”加剧；整体呈现出空间正相关的集聚特征；绿色投资正外部性与人力资本提升能够有效促进3E系统耦合协调发展，而工业化、城镇化的快速推进，社会投资的结构性失调成为抑制3E系统耦合协调发展的重要因素。

关键词: 经济-能源-环境系统, 耦合协调发展, 空间面板模型, 溢出效应

Abstract: In China the contradiction between the economic development driven by energy consumption and the environmental governance has become so sharp that the economy-energy-environment (3E) system has to be developed in a coordinated and coupling manner to effectively promote the transformation toward green and low-carbon economy. In view of this, this paper uses China's provincial panel data from 2004 to 2018 to measure the coupling coordination degree of the 3E system in 29 provinces and municipalities (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, Tibet, and Yunnan) using the coupling coordination degree and spatial panel model, examines the dynamic evolution law and spatial spillover effects and conducts accurate identification and policy discussions on the influencing factors of the coupling and coordinated development of the 3E system. The results show that although the coupling coordination degree of China's provincial 3E system has improved, the "polarization" has intensified. Overall, the evolution presents the agglomeration characteristics of positive spatial correlation. The positive externalities of green investment and human capital improvement can effectively promote the coupling and coordinated development of the 3E system. The rapid advancement of industrialization and urbanization and the structural imbalance of social investment have become important factors that inhibit the coordinated development of the 3E system.

Key words: economy-energy-environment system, coupling coordination development, spatial panel model, spillover effect

柴建, 田凌钺, 张晓空. 经济-能源-环境系统耦合协调发展的动态演化与影响要素研究[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(1): 29-41.

Chai Jian, Tian Lingyue, Zhang Xiaokong. Research on the Dynamic Evolution and Influence Factors of the Coupling Coordination Development of the Economy-Energy-Environment System[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(1): 29-41.

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