不确定性条件下的“创新漏斗”：颠覆性技术的识别方法与多阶段筛选路径研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 发展颠覆性技术是加快产业结构升级和发展方式转型、抢占未来发展制高点的重要战略选择，而如何在不确定性条件下识别优选匹配的颠覆性技术与产业，无疑是理论和实践中的一个重要难题。本文基于不确定性理论，在对现有主要颠覆性技术识别方法进行系统文献梳理并归纳总结的基础上，构建颠覆性技术“创新漏斗”多阶段筛选评估路径。研究发现，高效的颠覆性技术筛选评估路径应该是权变的，不存在一个最优的识别筛选评估模式，而要考虑该模式所适用的特定背景；在颠覆性技术发展过程中，不确定性程度在不断降低，信息资源的获取就越容易，因此需要采用更为精确的评估方法；制定精准的颠覆性技术培育政策需要综合考量所处的“创新漏斗”阶段、利益相关者以及识别方法之间的匹配权变关系。

关键词: 不确定性, 创新漏斗, 颠覆性技术, 识别方法, 筛选路径

Abstract: The development of disruptive innovation technology is an important strategic choice to accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure and the transformation of development mode, and seize the commanding heights of future development. However, given the significant uncertainties, it is challenging both theoretically and practically to identify the optimal disruptive innovation technology and industry. Based on uncertainties theory, this paper conducts a systematic literature review and summary of the existing major disruptive technology identification methods, and then constructs a multi-stage screening and evaluation path of disruptive technology “innovation funnel”. It is found that there is no optimal identification, screening and evaluation mode, but the specific background applicable to the mode should be considered, so the effective screening and evaluation path should be contingency; With the development of disruptive technologies, the degree of uncertainties is decreasing, and the easier it is to obtain information resources, the more accurate assessment methods are needed; It is necessary to comprehensively consider the matching contingency relationship between the stage of “innovation funnel” and the identification method to make an accurate disruptive technology cultivation policy.

Key words: uncertainty, innovation funnel, disruptive technologies, identification method, screening path

王刚, 侯广辉, 廖桂铭. 不确定性条件下的“创新漏斗”：颠覆性技术的识别方法与多阶段筛选路径研究[J]. 管理评论, 2022, 34(9): 98-107,119.

Wang Gang, Hou Guanghui, Liao Guiming. “Innovation Funnel” under Uncertainties: Recognition Method of Disruptive Technology and Multi-stage Screening Path[J]. Management Review, 2022, 34(9): 98-107,119.

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