管理评论

›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 152-156.

• 技术与创新管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于主客观集成的科技计划风险点评估方法

郑宇1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100090;
    2. 中共北京市通州区纪律检查委员会, 北京 101100
  • 收稿日期:2017-03-17 出版日期:2020-03-28 发布日期:2020-04-08
  • 作者简介:郑宇,中国科学院大学经济与管理学院博士研究生,中共北京市通州区委常委、纪委书记,通州区监察委主任

A Subjective and Objective Integrated Method for Comprehensive Risk Evaluation on Municipal Science and Technology Projects

Zheng Yu1,2   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100090;
    2. Tongzhou District Discipline Inspection Committee of Communist Party of China, Beijing 101100
  • Received:2017-03-17 Online:2020-03-28 Published:2020-04-08

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摘要：

针对科技计划风险点评估问题，本文提出一种基于主客观集成的综合评价方法。该方法在对科技计划风险点调研问卷统计的基础上，利用相关干系人对风险点的评价结果进行动态加权，评价科技计划的主观风险值，同时利用客观数据度量风险点的风险频率和风险敞口，计算科技计划的客观风险值，最后设计一个参数化集结函数对这些风险点进行评估和排序。本文探讨了不同阶段主客观权重设置问题，并对北京市科技计划的风险评估进行了实证分析。本文的研究工作可为科技计划监察和风险评估提供重要的科学依据和决策支持。

关键词: 科技计划, 风险点评估, 主客观集成, 综合评价

Abstract:

This paper presents a novel approach to evaluate municipal science and technology projects based on subjective and objective integration. Based on the statistic result of investigation on the risk of these projects, dynamic weights of all experts are carried out to measure the subjective risk. Meanwhile, risk frequency and cost are also investigated to get the objective risk. Finally, we evaluate and sort the risk of these projects according to the value of aggregation function. The study in this paper provides an important decision support for improving risk evaluation and supervision.

Key words: municipal science and technology projects, risk evaluation, subjective and objective integration, comprehensive risk evaluation