管理评论

›› 2019, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 241-257.

• 运作管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

经济新常态多目标协调控制策略研究

刘超1,2, 谢菁1, 刘宸琦3, 马玉洁1, 王超1,2   

  1. 1. 北京工业大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100124;
    2. 北京现代制造业发展研究基地, 北京 100124;
    3. 迪金森学院数学与计算机科学系, 卡莱尔 17013
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-17 出版日期:2019-03-28 发布日期:2019-03-27
  • 作者简介:刘超,北京工业大学经济与管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士;谢菁,北京工业大学经济与管理学院硕士研究生;刘宸琦,迪金森学院数学与计算机科学系本科生;马玉洁,北京工业大学经济与管理学院博士研究生;王超,北京工业大学经济与管理学院副教授,硕士生导师,博士。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金面上项目（61773029；61273230）；国家自然科学基金青年项目（61603011）；北京市属高校高水平教师队伍建设支持计划长城学者培养计划项目（CIT&TCD20170304）。

Multi-objective Coordination Control of the New Normal Economy of China

Liu Chao1,2, Xie Jing1, Liu Chenqi3, Ma Yujie1, Wang Chao1,2   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124;
    2. Modern Manufacturing Industry Development Research Base of Beijing, Beijing 100124;
    3. Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Dickinson College, Carlisle 17013
  • Received:2018-01-17 Online:2019-03-28 Published:2019-03-27

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摘要：

经济新常态多目标协调发展是现阶段社会经济健康平稳运行的重要保障。基于经济控制论的方法，探析经济新常态多目标之间的交互行为和耦合关系，运用Simulink模拟仿真平台构建经济新常态多目标系统仿真模型，通过检验模型的结构特性验证其有效性，并对关键变量进行调控，构建经济新常态多目标系统反馈控制模型，对经济新常态多目标协调发展的路径参数和实现途径进行模拟。结果表明，未来十年定期存款利率和中长期贷款利率均呈下降趋势且长期利差收窄；债券及股票融资规模的扩大、社会固定资产投资、R&D经费支出和国家财政社会保障与就业支出的增加将有力促进经济增长质量，为此，政府应持续加大投融资力度、科技创新投入和就业补助以实现四者快速增长；同时，还应将工业废气排放量以及工业废水排放量控制在一定的区间内。本文不仅为现阶段经济发展政策的实施提供理论支撑，还为经济新常态多目标的协调控制策略研究提供了方法指导。

关键词: 经济新常态, 多目标, 经济控制论, Simulink仿真, 协调发展

Abstract:

The multi-objective coordination of China's economy under the New Normal condition is important to economic stability. Based on the economic cybernetics, this paper studies the interaction and coupling relationship among the multiple objects of China's economy under the New Normal condition. We employ the Simulink to establish a simulation model, and then adjust the key variables to structure the feedback model. Results demonstrate that the coordinated development paths of the multiple objects of the New Normal economy not only lie in the reduction of the range of benchmark rate, but also in connection with indirect financing scale, investment in fixed assets, R&D expenditure and financial employment expenditure. In order to improve the quality of economic growth, the government should increase investment expenditure, technology spending and employment subsidy constantly. At the same time, the amount of industrial waste gas emissions and industrial waste water emissions should be controlled within a certain range. This paper not only provides theoretical support for the implementation of economic policies, but also provides coordinated control strategies for economic development of the current new normal stage.

Key words: the New Normal of China's economy, multi-objective, economic cybernetics, Simulink simulation, coordinated development