现金股利、自由现金流量与盈余可持续性——基于长期债权治理视角的实证考察

›› 2019, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 227-240.

现金股利、自由现金流量与盈余可持续性——基于长期债权治理视角的实证考察

张景奇

重庆大学经济与工商管理学院, 重庆 400044

收稿日期:2016-09-05 出版日期:2019-03-28 发布日期:2019-03-27
作者简介:张景奇,重庆大学经济与工商管理学院副研究员,博士。
基金资助:
国家社科基金一般项目（14BGL044）；教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目（13YJA790149）。

Cash Dividends, Free Cash Flow and Earnings Persistence——An Empirical Analysis Based on Governance Theory of Long-term Debt

Zhang Jingqi

College of Economic and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044

Received:2016-09-05 Online:2019-03-28 Published:2019-03-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文利用沪深两市非银行类上市公司 2004-2016年的季报数据，分别对其时间序列的多个盈余可持续性指标进行了计算，并分析了现金股利、自由现金流量、长期负债对盈余可持续性的影响。研究发现，现金分红对公司盈余可持续性有显著的正面影响，自由现金流量对公司盈余可持续性有显著的负面影响。进一步研究表明，长期债权具有显著治理和控制效应，且与现金股利治理具有显著替代效应。相对于高长期负债企业而言，现金分红对低长期负债企业的盈余可持续性正向影响更加显著，对自由现金流量的调节和抑制作用也更加突出。上述结论支持企业按长期负债大小为标准实施差异化的强制现金分红政策。

关键词: 现金股利, 自由现金流量, 长期债权治理, 盈余可持续性

Abstract:

With earnings persistence measures as explaining variables and employing quarterly earnings data of nonbank listed companies from Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges over the period 2004-2016, this paper first gives out many time series earnings persistence measures and then conducts an OLS regressional analysis on cash dividend and free cash flow with earnings persistence measures. Evidence shows that cash dividend has a significant positive relationship with proxies for earnings persistence while free cash flow has a significant negative relationship with proxies for earnings persistence. Further investigations show that long-term debt has a significant governance effect and has a substitutional effect with that of cash dividend. Compared with higher long-term debt companies, cash dividends for companies with lower ratios of long-term debt are more positively related earnings persistence and have more retraining effect on free cash flows. Finally, this paper suggests that China should take different mandatory cash dividends rules with different ratios of long-term debt.

Key words: cash dividends, free cash flows, long-term debt governance, earnings persistence

张景奇. 现金股利、自由现金流量与盈余可持续性——基于长期债权治理视角的实证考察[J]. , 2019, 31(3): 227-240.

Zhang Jingqi. Cash Dividends, Free Cash Flow and Earnings Persistence——An Empirical Analysis Based on Governance Theory of Long-term Debt[J]. , 2019, 31(3): 227-240.

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