序贯决策中时间压力对搜索行为的影响:前景预期的调节作用

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

揭示了序贯搜索情形中时间压力对搜索行为的影响及前景预期的调节作用。基于最优停止理论、双处理理论和调节定向理论构建了一个研究模型，针对时间压力感知和决策者搜索深度、搜索策略和搜索速度之间的关系提出了假设，在工作搜索情境下，基于计算机仿真求解了最优搜索行为，同时以大学四年级学生为被试，采用实验室实验方法研究其实际搜索行为，两厢对比检验了模型和假设。结果表明：时间压力会引发决策者搜索深度偏好的反转，低时间压力下过度搜索而高时间压力下搜索不足；时间压力对搜索深度有影响，个体的前景预期会调节这一影响；时间压力还显著地影响决策者搜索策略的偏好，低时间压力下基于选项搜索，高时间压力下基于属性搜索；时间压力会显著提高搜索速度。

关键词: 时间压力, 序贯搜索行为, 最优搜索理论, 前景预期, 调节作用

Abstract:

This study reveals the effect of time pressure on search behavior and expectation's moderating effect in sequential search scenario. A research model is built based on optimal stopping theory, dual processing theory and regulation orientation theory. Some hypotheses about decision-maker's search depth, strategy and speed are proposed. On the one hand, the optimal search behavior is solved based on computer simulation. On the other hand, the real search behavior of the subjects is observed with laboratory experiment. Furthermore, we test model and hypotheses through comparing real behavior with the optimal. There are four findings in this study. First, time pressure will cause decision-maker's preference reversal of search depth, which is over search under low time pressure while insufficient search under high time pressure. Second, expectation can moderate the relationship of time pressure to search depth, time pressure significantly influences search depth in pessimistic expectations but not significantly in optimistic expectation. Third, time pressure affects search strategy, which is attribute based strategy under low time pressure while option based strategy under high time pressure. Fourth, time pressures significantly speed up search.

Key words: time pressure, sequential search behavior, the optimal search theory, expectation, moderating effect

王渊, 秦军昌, 边卫军. 序贯决策中时间压力对搜索行为的影响:前景预期的调节作用[J]. , 2018, 30(8): 182-193.

Wang Yuan, Qin Junchang, Bian Weijun. An Experimental Study Based on the Moderating Effect of Expectation between Sequential Search Behavior and Time Pressure[J]. , 2018, 30(8): 182-193.

参考文献

[1] Lippman M. The Economics of Job Search:A Survey[J]. Economic Inquiry, 1976,14(2):155-189
[2] 万成高. 股票操作的最优停止问题[J]. 湖北大学学报(自然科学版), 2000,(3):239-241
[3] 叶永,刘南,詹沙磊. 基于信息更新的应急资源配置序贯决策方法[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2013,47(12):2213-2220
[4] 王渊,白永秀. 时间压力下序贯决策研究进展——基于TAM扩展框架的评述[J]. 经济管理, 2013,35(8):181-188
[5] 翁祉泉. 预期性后悔和欣喜作用下的最优序贯搜索策略研究[J]. 运筹学学报, 2012,16(4):51-60
[6] 薛行鸿. 最优序贯决策的唯一性[J]. 中国科学(A辑), 1985,(7):587-595
[7] Sonnemans J. Strategies of Search[J]. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1998,35:309-332
[8] Einav L. Information Asymmetries and Observational Learning in Search[J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 2005,30(3):241-250
[9] 王大伟. 决策制定过程中的时间压力效应[J]. 心理研究, 2009,2(6):42-46
[10] 张永红,陈有国,李婷婷,等. 时间压力与乐观-悲观倾向对购买决策的影响[J]. 西南大学学报(社会科学版), 2011,37(6):13-16
[11] Bendoly E., Donohue K., Schulz K. Behavior in Operations Management:Assessing Recent Findings and Revisiting Old Assumptions[J]. Journal of Operations Management, 2006,24(6):737-752
[12] 柏菊. 直觉决策研究综述与展望[J]. 中国软科学, 2008,(5):7-14
[13] Svenson O., Edland A. Change of Preferences under Time Pressure:Choices and Judgments[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 1987,28(3):322-330
[14] Ben Z. H., Breznitz S. J. The Effects of Time Pressure on Risky Choice Behavior[J]. Acta Psychological, 1981,47(2):89-104
[15] Young D., Goodie A., Hall D., et al. Decision Making under Time Pressure, Modeled in a Prospect Theory Framework[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2012,118(4):179-188
[16] Parks C. D., Cowlin R. Group Discussion as Affected by Number of Alternatives and by a Time Limit[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1995,62(3):267-275
[17] Isenberg D. J. Group Polarization:A Critical Review and Meta-analysis[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1986,50(4):1141-1151
[18] 金杨华. 情绪对个体判断和决策影响研究概述[J]. 心理科学, 2002,27(3):705-707
[19] Braunstein Y., Schotter A. Labor Market Search:An Experimental Study[J]. Economy Inquiry, 1982,20(3):133-144
[20] Lindner F., Rose J. No Need for More Time:Intertemporal Allocation Decisions under Time Pressure[DB/OL]. Working Papers in Economics and Statistics, No.2016-24, https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/156178, 2016
[21] 张敏. 时间压力下项目创新行为实验研究——基于面子的调节作用[J]. 科学学研究, 2013,31(3):456-462
[22] Rasmusen W. Y., Robbins H. The Candidate Problem with Unknown Population Size[J]. Journal of Applied Probability, 1975,12(2):692-701
[23] Bearden J. N., Rapoport A., Murphy R. O. Sequential Observation and Selection with Rank-dependent Payoffs:An Experimental Study[J]. Management Science, 2006,52(9):1437-1449
[24] Kogut C. A. Consumer Search Behavior and Sunk Costs[J]. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 1990,14(2):381-392
[25] Zwick R., Rapoport A., Lo A. K. C. Consumer Sequential Search:Not Enough or Too Much?[J]. Marketing Science, 2003,22(4):503-519
[26] Shu S. B. Future-biased Search:The Quest for the Ideal[J]. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2008,21(3):352-377
[27] 刘庆顺,王渊,王刊良. 取样观察值的离散程度对动态决策影响的实验研究[J]. 管理科学, 2008,21(2):104-111
[28] Ye L., Nicholas E. When the Best Appears to be Saved for Last:Serial Position Effects on Choice[J]. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2009,22(2):378-389
[29] 陈军. 归因风格、时间压力对决策信息加工的影响[J]. 心理科学, 2009,32(6):1445-1447
[30] Payne J. W., Bettman J. R., Johnson E. L. The Adaptive Decision Maker[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1993
[31] 盖雯婷,周楚. 信息的充分性和情绪性对推理的影响:时间压力的调节作用[J]. 心理科学, 2013,36(6):1296-1300
[32] Busemeryer J. R. Violations of the Speed-accuracy Trade-off Relation:Decreases in Decision Accuracy with Increases in Decision Time[M]. In Svenson O., Maule A.J.(Eds), Time Pressure and Stress in Human Judgment and Decision Making Plenum, New York, 2001
[33] 王大伟. 时间压力、任务类型对决策策略的影响[J]. 中国特殊教育, 2010,(10):79-83
[34] 王大伟,刘永芳. 归因风格、时间压力对购买决策影响的实验研究[J]. 心理科学, 2008,(4):905-908
[35] Lotto L., Manfrinati A., Sarlo M. A New Set of Moral Dilemmas:Norms for Moral Acceptability, Decision Time, and Emotional Salience[J]. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2014,27(4):57-65
[36] Melissa B. Optimistic and Pessimistic Biases:A Primer for Behavioral Ecologists[J]. Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences, 2016,12:115-121
[37] Carver C. S., Scheier M. F., Segerstrom S. C. Optimism[J]. Clinical Psychology Review, 2010,30:879-889
[38] Lerner J. S., Keltner D. Toward a Model of Emotion-Specific Influences on Judgment and Choice[J]. Cognition and Emotion, 2000,14(6):473-493
[39] 肖倩,吕厚超,华生旭. 希望和乐观——两种未来指向的积极预期[J]. 心理科学, 2013,36(6):1504-1509
[40] 马艳. 国内乐观研究述评[J]. 宁夏师范学院学报, 2011,32(1):95-97
[41] 段海军. 追寻生命的意义:积极心理学视野下的乐观主义价值[J]. 心理学探新, 2011,31(1):9-13
[42] Shepperd J. A., Klein W. M. P, Waters E. A., et al. Taking Stock of Unrealistic Optimism[J]. Perspective Psychology Science, 2013,8(2):395-411
[43] Bandura A. Self-efficacy:Toward a Unifying Theory of Behavioral Change[J]. Psychological Review, 1977,84:191-215
[44] Marshall G. N., Wortman C. B., Kusulas J. W., et al. Distinguishing Optimism and Pessimism:Relation to Fundamental Dimensions of Mood and Personality[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1992,62:1067-1074
[45] Bidisha M., Padmaja A., William T. G. Job Loss and Depression:The Role of Subjective Expectations[J]. Social Science & Medicine, 2011,72:576-583
[46] Loewenstein G., Perlec D. Preference for Sequences of Outcomes[J]. Psychological Review, 1993,100(1):91-108
[47] 董志勇. 行为经济学[M]. 北京:北京大学出版社, 2008
[48] Chaiken S., Trope Y. Dual-process Theories in Social Psychology[M]. New York:The Guilford Press, 1999
[49] Smith J. F., Mitchell T. R., Beach L. R. A Cost-benefit Mechanism for Selecting Problem-solving Strategies:Some Extensions and Empirical Tests[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1982,29:370-396
[50] 周春国,汤晓,曹欢欢. 虚拟效能感对大学生网络游戏深度卷入的影响研究[J]. 思想教育研究, 2014,(7):89-92
[51] Maheswaran D., Chaiken S. Promoting Systematic Processing in Low-motivation Settings:Effect of in Congruent Information on Processing and Judgment[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1991,61(1):13-25
[52] 黄鹂强,王刊良. 搜索引擎用户对商品搜索结果的点击行为研究[J]. 管理科学, 2012,25(1):76-84
[53] 王大伟,刘永芳. 时间知觉对决策制定的时间压力效应的影响[J]. 心理科学, 2009,32(5):1106-1108
[54] Zakay D., Meran N., Ben-Sahlom H. Cognitive Process of Time Estimation[J]. Psychological, 1989,1:104-112
[55] Geers A. L., Weiland P. E., Kosbab K., et al. Goal Activation, Expectations, and the Placebo Effect[J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2005,89:143-159
[56] 姚琦,马华维,乐国安. 期望与绩效的关系:调节定向的调节作用[J]. 心理学报, 2010,42(6):704-714
[57] Atkinson J. W. Motivational Determinants of Risk Taking Behavior[J]. Psychological Review, 1957,64:381-390
[58] De Brockner J., Cremer D., Fishman A. Y., et al. When does High Procedural Fairness Reduce Self-evaluations Following Unfavorable Outcomes?:The Moderating Effect of Prevention Focus[J]. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2008,44:187-200
[59] De Lange M. A., Knippenberg A. To Err is Human:How Regulatory Focus and Action Orientation Predict Performance Following Errors[J]. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2009,45:1192-1199
[60] 李建标,王鹏程,巨龙. 信息瀑布——序贯决策中行为匹配的实验研究[J]. 管理评论, 2015,27(10):84-94
[61] 刘庆顺,王渊,王刊良. 秘书问题研究综述:何时停止搜索信息?[J]. 数理统计与管理, 2009,28(1):69-81
[62] 王刊良,王渊,刘庆顺. 序贯观察与选择问题截止阀策略的一个改进[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2008,(2):74-81
[63] Weening M. W. H., Maarleveld M. The Impact of Time Constraint on Information Search Strategies in Complex Choice Tasks[J]. Journal of Economic Psychology, 2002,23(2):689-702
[64] Payne J. W., Bettman J. R. When Time is Money:Decision Behavior under Opportunity-cost Time Pressure[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process, 1996,66(2):131-152