管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2026, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 74-89.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    

“降碳贷”与财税政策协同赋能绿色技术创新的碳减排效应与稳增长效应模拟

卞晨1, 陈宗义2, 范志国3, 丁淑娟4   

  1. 1. 山东理工大学经济学院, 淄博 255000;
    2. 齐鲁工业大学金融学院, 济南 250100;
    3. 潍坊科技学院经济管理学院, 潍坊 262700;
    4. 山东师范大学经济学院, 济南 250358
  • 收稿日期:2024-12-18 发布日期:2026-07-08
  • 作者简介:卞晨，山东理工大学经济学院讲师，博士；陈宗义（通讯作者），齐鲁工业大学金融学院副教授，硕士生导师，博士；范志国，潍坊科技学院经济管理学院讲师，博士；丁淑娟，山东师范大学经济学院教授，博士生导师，博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金一般项目（22BJY007）。

Simulation of Carbon Emission Reduction Effect and Economic Stabilization Effect Achieved by “Carbon Reduction Loan” in Synergy with Fiscal Policy to Empower Green Technology Innovation

Bian Chen1, Chen Zongyi2, Fan Zhiguo3, Ding Shujuan4   

  1. 1. School of Economics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000;
    2. School of Finance, Qilu University of Technology, Jinan 250100;
    3. Economics Management College, Weifang University of Science and Technology, Weifang 262700;
    4. School of Economics, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358
  • Received:2024-12-18 Published:2026-07-08

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摘要： 企业绿色技术创新是政策赋能影响碳减排与稳增长的重要路径。通过在NK-E-DSGE模型中内生绿色技术创新过程，同步引入“降碳贷”、碳税与绿色研发补贴等政策工具，在采用中国季度宏观数据进行校准与估计基础上，模拟了财税金融政策工具单独作用与协同实施的政策效应。模拟结果显示：第一，单一政策工具效果方面，碳税政策兼具赋能绿色技术创新、碳减排与长期内稳增长的三重效果，相较于其他政策工具而言，更具全面性；第二，政策工具交互效应方面，“降碳贷”政策的实施能够增强碳税的碳减排效果,增强政府环保投资支出与末端减排补贴促进产出水平提高效果,增强绿色研发补贴的绿色技术创新引致效果；第三，政策工具组合效果方面，“降碳贷”与碳税的政策组合对于碳减排与稳增长的实现更具优势，在“减碳主导型”与“增长主导型”两种政策评价体系下，“降碳贷”+碳税的基础政策组合与“减税降费”型积极财政政策协调配合的政策评价得分高于与绿色财政支出扩张协调配合的评价得分，进一步叠加宽松货币政策的效应时，上述结论仍然成立；第四，政府可通过调整碳税税率与“降碳贷”减息系数进一步优化政策组合的宏观调控效果，并且带来社会福利的“帕累托增进”。

关键词: “降碳贷”, 财税政策, 绿色技术创新, 碳减排效应, 稳增长效应

Abstract: Enterprise green technology innovation serves as a critical pathway through which policy empowerment influences carbon emission reduction and stable growth. By endogenizing the green technology innovation process within an NK-E-DSGE model and simultaneously incorporating policy instruments such as “carbon reduction loan,” carbon taxes, and green R&D subsidies, this study simulates the individual and synergistic effects of fiscal and financial policy tools based on the calibration and estimation of Chinese quarterly macroeconomic data. The simulation results indicate that: First, regarding the effectiveness of individual policy instruments, carbon tax policy demonstrates a triple effect of fostering green technology innovation, reducing carbon emissions, and promoting long-term stable growth, proving more comprehensive compared to other policy tools. Second, in terms of policy interaction effects, the implementation of “carbon reduction loan” enhances the carbon reduction effect of carbon taxes, strengthens the output-boosting effects of government environmental investment expenditures and end-of-pipe reduction subsidies, and amplifies the green technology innovation inducement effect of green R&D subsidies. Third, with respect to policy combinations, the mix of “carbon reduction loans” and carbon taxes is more advantageous for achieving both carbon reduction and stable growth. Under both the “carbon reduction-oriented” and “growth-oriented” policy evaluation frameworks, the combination of “carbon reduction loans” and carbon taxes, when coordinated with a “tax and fee reduction” type of proactive fiscal policy, yields higher evaluation scores than when coordinated with an expansion of green fiscal expenditures. This conclusion holds even when further combined with loose monetary policy. Fourth, the government can further optimize the macroeconomic regulation effects of policy combinations by adjusting the carbon tax rate and the interest reduction coefficient of “carbon reduction loan”, thereby achieving a “Pareto improvement” in social welfare.

Key words: “carbon reduction loan”, fiscal policy, green technology innovation, carbon emission reduction effect, economic stabilization effect