基于主体建模仿真的供应链风险管理研究：现状、问题与展望

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近年来,主体建模仿真方法在供应链风险管理方面的研究和应用日益深入。相比传统数学建模方法,主体建模仿真方法能够更精确地刻画供应链的自组织性、适应性和非线性特性,从而为复杂供应链管理提供更有效的工具。通过采用主体建模仿真方法,学者能够在供应链管理风险研究中模拟供应链中各类主体响应不同风险事件的行为,建立仿真模型展示供应链运营动态,从而推演风险事件对供应链的影响,评估风险管理策略的有效性,识别潜在的风险来源,预测不同风险事件的后果。本文回顾了主体建模仿真方法的发展历程以及供应链风险管理的研究现状,并且基于三大类供应链风险(环境风险、网络风险、组织风险)详述了主体建模仿真方法与不同风险结合的主要研究内容和尚存问题。最后,本文提出未来研究应关注风险因素在主体建模中的内生化、探究主体建模仿真方法与其他方法的结合、加强产业链供应链的韧性仿真研究。

关键词: 主体建模仿真, 供应链风险管理, 供应链仿真

Abstract: In recent years, the research and application of the agent-based modeling and simulation method in supply chain risk management have become increasingly deeper. By adopting the agent-based modeling (ABM), scholars in the field of supply chain risk management can simulate the agent behavior in the supply chain in response to different risk events, establish simulation models to demonstrate the dynamics of supply chain operations, and thus deduce the impact of risk events on the supply chain, evaluate the effectiveness of risk management strategies, identify potential sources of risk, and predict the consequences of different risk events. This paper reviews the development of ABM and the current status of supply chain risk management research based on three significant types of supply chain risks (environmental, network, and organizational risks). The main research content and problems of combining ABM with different risks are elaborated. Finally, this paper proposes to pay attention to the internalization of risk factors in ABM, explore the combination of ABM with other methods, and strengthen the resilience simulation research of industrial-chain-and-supply-chains.

Key words: agent-based modeling and simulation, supply chain risk management, supply chain simulation

马潇宇, 贺舟, 林超华. 基于主体建模仿真的供应链风险管理研究：现状、问题与展望[J]. 管理评论, 2026, 38(5): 238-250.

Ma Xiaoyu, He Zhou, Lin Chaohua. Agent-based Modeling and Simulation of Supply Chain Risk Management: Current Status,Issues,and Prospects[J]. Management Review, 2026, 38(5): 238-250.

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