管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2026, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 211-224.

• 运营与供应链管理 • 上一篇    

考虑价值链增值约束的跨境供应链重构决策研究

李珊1, 董明1,2, 卢佳倩1   

  1. 1. 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院, 上海 200030;
    2. 上海交通大学数字化管理决策教育部哲学社会科学实验室, 上海 200030
  • 收稿日期:2024-06-11 发布日期:2026-06-06
  • 作者简介:李珊,上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院博士研究生;董明(通讯作者),上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院、上海交通大学数字化管理决策教育部哲学社会科学实验室教授,博士生导师,博士;卢佳倩,上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院硕士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目（72271161）；国家社会科学基金重点项目（23AZD017）；国家自然科学基金重点项目（72331006）。

Research on Cross-border Supply Chain Reconfiguration Decisions Considering Value-added Constraints

Li Shan1, Dong Ming1,2, Lu Jiaqian1   

  1. 1. Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030;
    2. Data-Driven Management Decision Making Lab, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030
  • Received:2024-06-11 Published:2026-06-06

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摘要： 全球贸易摩擦与保护主义的加剧推动了供应链和产业链的加速重构,跨境制造企业在关税壁垒和贸易管制的压力下面临供应链优化的关键抉择。其中,通过将生产转移至关税较低的国家以规避高关税压力,成为企业供应链重构的一种可选策略。然而,这一策略的实施需满足原产地规则和增值约束。本文结合实际案例,构建了基于博弈分析的三级跨境供应链模型,系统研究了关税政策对跨境制造企业供应链决策的作用机制。研究发现,只有当优惠关税与原关税之间的关税差达到适度水平时,跨境制造企业才能有效利用原产地认证规则,通过将加工基地转移至第三国(地)实现效益提升。当关税差较小时,跨境制造企业缺乏足够的动力来迁移其生产基地;当关税差较大时,跨境制造企业需要根据关税差的适度水平决策其生产基地是否迁移,而这与迁移地的原产地规则相关。此外,产品替代率和目标市场规模显著影响企业的决策:竞争力较弱的产品更适合通过供应链重构提升收益,而市场规模的扩大则提高了关税差门槛。本文揭示了关税政策对跨境制造企业供应链重构决策的核心影响机制,为企业在复杂国际贸易环境中的供应链优化提供了理论指导和实践参考。

关键词: 供应链重构, 原产地认证, 增值约束, 贸易关税, 竞争博弈

Abstract: The intensification of global trade tensions and protectionism has accelerated the restructuring of supply chains and industrial networks. Multinational manufacturing firms, under the pressure of tariff barriers and trade regulations, are faced with strategic choice regarding supply chain relocation. Relocating production to countries with lower tariffs has become a viable strategy to mitigate high tariff pressures, but this requires compliance with rules of origin and value-added constraints. This study constructs a three-level cross-border supply chain model using game theory to analyze how tariff policies influence multinational firms' decisions. The results show that firms can benefit from relocating production to third countries only when the tariff differential between preferential and original tariffs reaches a moderate level. Small tariff differentials provide insufficient motivation. However, when the tariff gap becomes significant, multinational manufacturing firms must decide whether to relocate their production base, considering both the tariff gap and rules of origin constraints. Additionally, product substitutability and market size significantly affect decisions. Less competitive products are more suited for supply chain restructuring, while larger markets raise the threshold for tariff differentials. This study highlights the core mechanisms of how tariff policies impact supply chain restructuring and provides practical guidance for firms navigating complex international trade environments.

Key words: supply chain restructuring, rules of origin, value-added constraints, trade tariffs, competitive game