管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2026, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 41-53.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    

区域导向型政策的集聚效应与选择效应——以东北振兴战略为例

郭旭1, 范世龙2, 张昂2   

  1. 1. 大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院, 大连 116026;
    2. 大连理工大学经济管理学院, 大连 116024
  • 收稿日期:2022-02-28 发布日期:2026-05-14
  • 作者简介:郭旭，大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院副教授，博士；范世龙，大连理工大学经济管理学院博士研究生；张昂，大连理工大学经济管理学院硕士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年项目（72003018）；教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目（20YJC790037）。

Agglomeration Effect and Selection Effect of Region-oriented Policy—Evidence from Northeast Revitalization Strategy

Guo Xu1, Fan Shilong2, Zhang Ang2   

  1. 1. School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026;
    2. School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024
  • Received:2022-02-28 Published:2026-05-14

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摘要： 在区域协调发展战略的指引下，区域导向型政策是对地区间发展不平衡问题的积极应对，也是推动特定地区经济高质量发展的重要手段。本文从集聚效应和选择效应的视角，讨论了东北振兴战略给地区企业生产率带来的政策效果。理论上，构建了区域导向型政策影响下的企业“集聚-选择效应”模型；实证上，采用“无条件分布特征-参数对应”估计法和双重差分估计法，检验了东北振兴战略对企业生产率带来的选择效应和集聚效应。研究发现：①政策整体上扭曲了东北地区的集聚效应和选择效应，表现为负向的同质性集聚效应，以及正向的异质性集聚效应和选择效应，也就是降低了地区生产率平均水平，扩大了高、低效率企业之间的生产率差异，带来更多低效率企业退出市场。②低效率国有企业的退出行为不明显，政策对试点行业生产率的负向作用更为明显。随着后续振兴战略意见的出台，2009年之后，东北地区企业生产率有所提升，缓解了早期政策偏向性带来的低效率问题。双重差分法下的动态效应检验、分位数回归以及Probit模型的估计结果与上述结论一致。③机制检验结果显示，首轮东北振兴战略显著降低了高效率企业创新投入，但提高了固定资产和劳动投入，低效率企业无论是创新投入还是其他要素投入均有所减少。本文针对首轮东北振兴战略的效果评估，为新时代东北全面振兴的政策制定提供理论和经验借鉴。

关键词: 区域导向型政策, ADS模型, 集聚效应, 选择效应

Abstract: Under the strategic guidance of regional coordinated development, region-oriented policies serve as a proactive response to the imbalance in regional development and a significant pathway to promote high-quality economic growth in specific areas. This study investigates the impact of China’s Northeast Revitalization Strategy on firms’ productivity, analyzing its dual mechanisms of industrial agglomeration and market selection effects. Theoretically, we construct a model of “agglomeration-selection effects” under the influence of regional policies. Empirically, we employ the “unconditional distribution characteristics-parameter correspondence” method and the difference-in-differences estimation to test the selection and agglomeration effects of the revitalization strategy on enterprises’ productivity. The findings reveal: (1) The policy overall distorts the agglomeration and selection effects in Northeast China, manifesting as negative homogeneous agglomeration effects, positive heterogeneous agglomeration effects, and selection effects, thereby lowering the average regional productivity, widening the productivity gap between high and low-efficiency enterprises, and leading to more low-efficiency enterprises exiting the market. (2) The exit behavior of state-owned low-efficiency enterprises is not significant, and the policy’s negative impact on the productivity of pilot industries is more pronounced. With the subsequent introduction of revitalization strategy opinions, enterprise productivity in Northeast China improved after 2009, mitigating the inefficiencies caused by early policy biases. The dynamic effects test, quantile regression, and Probit model estimations under the difference-in-differences approach are consistent with these conclusions. (3) Mechanism tests show that the first round of Northeast Revitalization significantly reduced innovation investment in high-efficiency enterprises but increased their fixed asset and labor inputs, while low-efficiency enterprises saw reductions in both innovation and other factor inputs. This paper’s evaluation of the first round of Northeast Revitalization Strategy provides theoretical and empirical insights for policy formulation in the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China in the new era.

Key words: regional-oriented policies, ADS model, agglomeration effect, selection effect