关键词: “一带一路”生产网络, 结构演化, 内生机制, TERGM模型

Abstract: This paper uses value-added data to construct network models to analyze the structural characteristics and evolution of the Belt and Road (B&R) production network, then infers the endogenous mechanisms affecting the evolution of the network based on social network theory, and uses the TERGM model for empirical testing. It is found that: (i) The distance between production division of labor and cooperation among the B&R countries in the “country-overall” and “country-industry” production networks is getting smaller and smaller, the reciprocity feature is becoming more and more obvious, and the relationship is getting closer and closer. (ii) The East-South Asia association led by China and the Europe-Central Asia-West Asia association led by Russia have formed in the network, and the composition of the association is relatively stable. (iii) China is the core country with the highest central position, proximity to other countries and influence in the network. (iv) The evolution of the B&R production network is influenced by endogenous mechanisms. Specifically, reciprocity and delayed reciprocity have a positive impact. The B&R production network has an expansion effect without a central potential, and the partnership between the B&R countries is not monopolized by a few countries. The B&R countries have a tendency to reach indirect cooperation relations through multiple paths, and countries tend to work together as a group. Further analysis reveals that there are differences in the impact of endogenous mechanisms on the evolution of production networks along different routes, in different associations and in different types of industries, and that the reciprocity effect of production network has increased significantly after the B&R initiative.

Key words: the B&R production network, structural evolution, endogenous mechanism, TERGM model