管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (9): 42-55.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    

“制造强国”政策能否提升产业基础能力？——基于连续型空间DID模型的实证分析

季凯文1, 罗璐薏2, 汤文颖3, 袁子晨3   

  1. 1. 江西师范大学政法学院, 南昌 330022;
    2. 江西财经大学经济学院, 南昌 330013;
    3. 江西师范大学江西经济发展研究院, 南昌 330022
  • 收稿日期:2023-03-07 发布日期:2025-10-13
  • 作者简介:季凯文（通讯作者），江西师范大学政法学院院长，研究员，博士生导师，博士；罗璐薏，江西财经大学经济学院博士研究生；汤文颖，江西师范大学江西经济发展研究院硕士研究生；袁子晨，江西师范大学江西经济发展研究院硕士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目（20&ZD068）；江西省科技计划项目（20222BAA10W04）；江西省智库研究项目（23ZK16）。

Can the China’s “Manufacturing Superpower” Policy Improve the Industrial Base Capability?—An Empirical Analysis Based on the Continuous Spatial DID Model

Ji Kaiwen1, Luo Luyi2, Tang Wenying3, Yuan Zichen3   

  1. 1. School of Political Science and Law, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022;
    2. School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013;
    3. Jiangxi Institute of Economic Development, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022
  • Received:2023-03-07 Published:2025-10-13

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摘要： 产业基础能力薄弱已成为制约中国产业链供应链现代化水平提升的关键因素。本文基于2013—2019年中国省域数据，构建了产业基础能力评价指标体系，采用变异系数模型分析了中国省域产业基础能力的σ收敛特征，并运用连续型DID模型和连续型空间DID模型实证分析了“制造强国”政策对中国产业基础能力的影响效应。主要结论如下：①中国省域产业基础能力总体呈现上升趋势，特别是2015年“制造强国”政策实施后，中国省域产业基础能力打破了新古典经济增长理论的收敛现象，不存在σ收敛，仍具增长潜力；②“制造强国”政策提升了产业基础能力，且政策的正向促进效应持续；③考虑政策的空间影响后发现，“制造强国”政策对产业基础能力存在本地、邻地和整体地区的正向空间效应，且空间溢出效应大于对本地的直接效应；④进一步分析发现，“制造强国”政策主要通过提高产业创新基础能力和产业基础设施服务能力来提升产业基础能力，对于产业基础供给能力的影响仅存在空间总效应，对于产业竞争基础能力和产业链管控能力尚无明确影响；⑤机制分析表明，数字经济和金融科技是“制造强国”政策影响产业基础能力的两个机制，且这两个机制的传导路径皆对本地和整体地区存在正向影响，对于邻地存在负向影响。

关键词: “制造强国”政策, 产业基础能力, 变异系数法, σ收敛, 连续型空间DID模型

Abstract: Weak industrial base capacity has become a key factor limiting the improvement of China’s industrial chain supply chain level. Based on the data of Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2019, this paper constructs an index system for evaluating industrial base capacity, analyzes the change characteristics of industrial base capacity in China’s provinces by using the coefficient of variation σ convergence model, and empirically analyzes the effect of China’s “manufacturing superpower” policy on the industrial base capacity in China by using continuous and spatial continuous DID models. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) China’s provincial industrial base capacity shows an upward trend in general, especially after the implementation of the China’s “manufacturing superpower” policy in 2015, when China’s provincial industrial base capacity began to break away from the convergence trend as proposed by the neoclassical economic growth theory and instead show further growth potential without σ convergence. (2) China’s “manufacturing superpower” policy has improved the industrial base capacity to a certain extent, and the positive promoting effect of the policy is more sustainable. (3) Considering the spatial dimension of the policy, it is evident that China’s “manufacturing superpower” policy has a positive spatial impact on industrial basic capabilities, benefiting not only local and neighboring areas, but also the entire region. Furthermore, the spillover effect on neighboring areas and the entire region is more substantial than the direct effect it has on local area. (4) Further analysis reveals that the China’s “manufacturing superpower” policy mainly improves industrial base capacity by enhancing industrial innovation capacity and industrial infrastructure service capacity. Its impact on industrial supply capacity exists only in terms of total spatial effects, with no clear impact on industrial competitiveness and industrial chain control capacity. (5) Mechanism analysis indicates that the digital economy and financial technology are two mechanisms through which China’s “manufacturing superpower” policy affects industrial base capacity. These mechanisms positively influence both local area and the entire region, but negatively affect neighboring areas.

Key words: “manufacturing superpower” policy, industrial base capability, coefficient of Variation Method, σ convergence, continuous spatial DID model