管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (8): 248-261.

• 物流与供应链管理 • 上一篇    

供应中断下考虑决策者过度自信的模块化应急物资供应链协调

邱莹1,2, 黄奕豪1, 姚迪1,2, 张炜健3, 汪寿阳3,4,5   

  1. 1. 北京石油化工学院经济管理学院, 北京 102617;
    2. 北京现代产业新区发展研究基地, 北京 102617;
    3. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100190;
    4. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院, 北京 100190;
    5. 中国科学院预测科学研究中心, 北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2023-11-02 发布日期:2025-09-09
  • 作者简介:邱莹，北京石油化工学院经济管理学院副教授，硕士生导师，博士；黄奕豪，北京石油化工学院经济管理学院硕士研究生；姚迪，北京石油化工学院经济管理学院讲师，硕士生导师，博士；张炜健(通讯作者)，中国科学院大学经济与管理学院特别研究助理(博士后)；汪寿阳，中国科学院大学经济与管理学院、中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院研究员，博士生导师，博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71988101；72401283)；教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目(21YJCZH120)；北京市属高等学校优秀青年人才培育计划项目(BPHR202203095)；北京石油化工学院重要科研成果培育项目(BIPTACF-012)；中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2022M723107)。

Modular Emergency Supply Chain Coordination Considering Decision-maker Overconfidence under Supply Disruptions

Qiu Ying1,2, Huang Yihao1, Yao Di1,2, Zhang Weijian3, Wang Shouyang3,4,5   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology, Beijing 102617;
    2. Beijing Modern Industrial New Area Development Research Base, Beijing 102617;
    3. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    4. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    5. Center for Predictive Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
  • Received:2023-11-02 Published:2025-09-09

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摘要： 充足的应急物资储备是应对突发事件的关键，对于存在关联关系的多类应急物资，某类物资的供应中断将加剧整体储备不足的风险。为提升应急服务供应链韧性，针对应急物资供给数量和品类不匹配需求的问题设计应急物资模块化储备方式；考虑政府决策者不完全理性导致的行为偏差，基于数量弹性契约，设计供应中断下考虑决策者过度自信的应急物资储备模型；针对决策者有无过度自信的两种情况，剖析应急物资模块化储备下的应急服务供应链协调机制。通过算例仿真，分析模块化储备、过度自信水平以及常规采购单价和弹性系数等关键契约参数变化对最优决策的影响。结果表明：模块化采购可适当降低库存冗余风险，加深应急物资库存精细化管理程度，降低政府资金投入和库存成本，实现应急服务供应链韧性和整体利润双提升；决策者过度自信时，容易引发应急不足风险，若采用较低的常规采购价格可刺激政府提升采购量、弥补决策偏差，但会严重损害供应商利益和应急服务供应链长期协调；可充分发挥数量柔性契约的作用，针对性、动态化调整易发生供应中断品类的常规采购价格，以实现应急服务供应链协调。

关键词: 应急供应链, 供应中断, 模块化, 过度自信

Abstract: Adequate emergency supplies are critical for dealing with unexpected events. For various related types of emergency supplies, the disruption of one type of supply can exacerbate the overall shortage risk. To enhance the resilience of the emergency services supply chain, a modular emergency supplies storage method is designed to address the mismatched demand for the quantity and categories of emergency supplies. Taking into account decision-making biases caused by the incomplete rationality of government decision-maker, an emergency supplies storage model considering decision-maker overconfidence is designed based on quantity-flexible contracts. Two scenarios, with and without decision-maker overconfidence, are analyzed to dissect the coordination mechanisms of the emergency service supply chain under modular emergency supplies storage. Through case simulations, the impacts of modular storage, overconfidence levels, and key contract parameters, such as conventional procurement prices and elasticity coefficients, on optimal decision-making are analyzed. The results show that modular procurement can appropriately reduce inventory redundancy risks, deepen the precision management of emergency supplies inventory, reduce government financial investments and inventory costs, and improve the resilience of the emergency service supply chain and overall profits. When the decision-maker is overconfident, it is easy to induce an emergency shortage risk. By adopting lower conventional procurement prices, the government can stimulate increased procurement and compensate for decision biases, but it can seriously harm supplier interests and long-term coordination of the emergency service supply chain. Leveraging the role of quantity-flexible contracts can effectively adjust the conventional procurement prices of categories prone to supply disruptions in a targeted and dynamic manner to achieve coordination within the emergency service supply chain.

Key words: emergency supply chain, supply disruptions, modularization, overconfidence