从单变量分析到多变量组合——组态视角下的报童模型研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 报童模型作为运营优化的重要框架，已有大量研究从多方面对其进行拓展。为了利用报童模型更好地解释和指导现实，文章将多变量组合的组态思想引入报童模型，在基础模型和考虑残值两种情形下，从多变量组合的角度分析报童模型中优化决策结果的特征和规律。研究发现：a.主体的风险态度不仅是主观的特征，也会受产品盈利能力、主体间的决策结构(是否互动)等客观条件的影响；b.相对风险、残值率、产品盈利能力(多种形式)等变量组合对报童模型的优化决策有重要的影响，表现为多种调节效应，这些复杂的关系所构成的组态将主体的决策划分为若干个细分空间；c.互动的决策结构在总体上提升了决策主体的冒险意愿，是否考虑互动的决策结构，会影响决策主体风险态度，甚至使风险态度发生反转。文章的研究成果从组态的视角拓展了报童模型的研究结论，也为整合文献中出现的冲突性观点提供了可能的解释框架。

关键词: 报童模型, 组态, 风险态度, 盈利能力, 残值

Abstract: As an important operation optimization framework, newsvendor model has been extended from multiple aspects. In order to give a better explanation and guide the practice, this paper introduces the configurational idea of variable combination into the newsvendor model, and analyzes the optimal decisions in the newsvendor model from the perspective of multivariate combination without/with residual value. The result shows that:(1) the risk attitude is affected by objective conditions such as product profitability, decisionmaking structure between subjects (with or without interaction); (2) combinations of variables such as relative risk, residual value rate, product profitability, have important impacts on the optimal decision-making of the newsvendor model, and the impacts are manifested in a variety of regulation effects which separate the decision spaces into multiple domains; (3) the interactive decision-making structure generally improves the risk-taking willingness of decision-making subjects, which is also affected and even reversed by whether interaction is involved. The research results of this paper extend the research conclusions of the newsvendor model from the perspective of configurational theory, and also provide an integrating framework for explaining the conflicting views in literature.

Key words: newsvendor model, configurational, risk attitude, profitability, residual value

刘蕾, 鄢章华, 袭希, 吕衍轶, 洪璇娇. 从单变量分析到多变量组合——组态视角下的报童模型研究[J]. 管理评论, 2025, 37(5): 251-264.

Liu Lei, Yan Zhanghua, Xi Xi, Lv Yanyi, Hong Xuanjiao. From Single Variable to Multiple Combination: A Configurational Perspective for Newsvendor Model[J]. Management Review, 2025, 37(5): 251-264.

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