基于多级链路资源冲突的关键链项目缓冲调整方法

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 项目执行过程中支链活动延误可能与主链发生资源冲突，为了避免资源短缺导致的工期延误问题，提出了一种根据资源使用情况动态调整项目缓冲量的方法。该方法考虑了多级链路之间资源冲突的横向影响和纵向影响来确定项目缓冲大小，根据链路层级跨度与排布确定资源冲突的纵向影响，利用资源属性结合马尔科夫链预测资源冲突的横向影响。仿真实验表明，该方法能够有效降低资源冲突导致的项目延误风险，结合预测方法动态优化缓冲量，提高项目缓冲的稳定性和适应性。

关键词: 项目管理, 关键链, 缓冲确定, 资源冲突, 马尔科夫链

Abstract: In order to avoid the project delay caused by the shortage of resources, a method of dynamically adjusting the project buffer according to the use of resources is proposed. This method considers the horizontal and vertical impacts of resource conflicts between multilevel links to determine the size of project buffer, determines the vertical impacts of resource conflicts according to link hierarchy span and arrangement, and predicts the horizontal impacts of resource conflicts by combining resource attributes with Markov chain. The simulation results show that this method can effectively reduce the risk of project delay caused by resource conflict, and combine with the prediction method to optimize the buffer amount dynamically to improve the stability and adaptability of project buffer.

Key words: project management, critical chain, buffer determination, resource conflict, Markov chain

张俊光, 张旭. 基于多级链路资源冲突的关键链项目缓冲调整方法[J]. 管理评论, 2025, 37(5): 243-250.

Zhang Junguang, Zhang Xu. Critical Chain Project Buffer Sizing Based on Multi-level Resource Conflict[J]. Management Review, 2025, 37(5): 243-250.

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