管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (11): 181-193.

• • 上一篇    

服务贸易与绿色城市空间效应——基于“双化协同”的都市产业新质生产力研究

霍达1, 顾雯嘉2, 乔莉3, 唐爱迪2, 胡超4   

  1. 1. 北京外国语大学国际商学院, 北京 100089;
    2. 中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院, 北京 102206;
    3. 北京联合大学商务学院, 北京 100025;
    4. 广西民族大学经济学院, 南宁 530006
  • 收稿日期:2024-05-30 发布日期:2025-12-17
  • 作者简介:霍达，北京外国语大学国际商学院教授，博士；顾雯嘉，中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院博士研究生；乔莉（通讯作者），北京联合大学商务学院副教授，博士；唐爱迪，中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院助理教授，博士；胡超，广西民族大学经济学院教授，博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金一般项目（20BJL055）；北京市社会科学基金决策咨询项目（24JCC093）。

Service Trade and the Spatial Effects of Green Cities—New Quality Productivity of Urban Industries by “Dual Transformation”

Huo Da1, Gu Wenjia2, Qiao Li3, Tang Aidi2, Hu Chao4   

  1. 1. International Business School, Beijing Foreign Studies University, Beijing 100089;
    2. School of International Trade and Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102206;
    3. Business College, Beijing Union University, Beijing 100025;
    4. School of Economics, Guangxi Minzu University, Nanning 530006
  • Received:2024-05-30 Published:2025-12-17

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摘要： 本文基于空间模型研究了服务贸易在推进数字化与绿色化“双化协同”转型中的城市空间效应。研究发现，服务贸易与数字经济的发展对城区碳排放具有抑制作用，二者的交叉效应有助于降低邻近城区的碳排放水平。然后，通过聚类分析考察了各城区的服务贸易与“双化协同”分布特征，同时，结合马尔科夫链预测了服务贸易促进绿色化和数字化双重转型的发展趋势。结果显示，各城区在服务贸易的发展过程中将逐渐向高水平服务贸易、高水平数字经济和低碳排放稳态发展。进一步，运用匈牙利算法分析了绿色城市发展都市产业新质生产力的碳排放最优解，探讨了北京市各城区在不同情境下结合服务贸易推进“双化协同”的机制路径。

关键词: 服务贸易, 绿色城市空间效应, “双化协同”, 都市产业新质生产力

Abstract: This study uses spatial models to examine how service trade supports cities in achieving both digital and green transformation. The results indicate that service trade and the digital economy help reduce carbon emissions within each district, and their co-function effect also lowers emissions in nearby districts. Cluster analysis is used to identify the distribution patterns of service trade and the “dual transformation,” and a Markov chain is further applied to predict how service trade will drive progress in both digitalization and greening. The findings suggest that districts will gradually move toward a stationary state with higher levels of service trade, stronger digital economies, and lower carbon emissions. In addition, the Hungarian algorithm is employed to identify the optimal carbon emission outcomes for new quality productivity in green urban industries. The study explores how different districts in Beijing can use service trade to advance digital-green synergies under various scenarios.

Key words: service trade, spatial effects of green cities, digital-green synergistic “dual transformation”, new quality productivity in urban industries