拆东墙补西墙——借款人“借贷还债”特征对还款行为的实证研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着中国金融科技的不断发展，借贷产品不断丰富，借款人的借款渠道和选择不断增多，“借贷还债”现象尤为突出。本文使用我国某大型现金贷平台数据，对现金贷平台中具有“借贷还债”特征借款人的还款行为，从借款订单和借款人两个维度进行研究。研究发现:现金贷“花呗”额度使用率与违约的可能性呈正相关，即“花呗”额度使用率越高，现金贷借款或借款人违约或逾期的可能性越大。从异质性角度，研究结论表明，居住在小城市的借款人，相对于居住在较大城市借款人还款表现更差，更容易发生违约或逾期。此外，男性借款人相较于女性，还款表现更差，更容易发生违约或逾期行为。本文从“借贷还债”角度剖析借款人违约行为，对于当前我国加强网络借贷市场监管，完善个人征信体系，规范网络借贷市场具有重要价值。

关键词: 网络借贷, 现金贷, 借贷还债, 还款行为

Abstract: The rapid development of China's Fintech online lending platforms has provided borrowers with more accesses to funds, espe-cially by “robbing Peter to pay Paul”. Using micro data from one of the largest cash loan platforms in China, this paper empirically stud-ies the paying behavior of borrowers “robbing Peter to pay Paul” from two perspectives:payday loans' order level and borrower level. This study shows borrowers who are “robbing Peter to pay Paul” have higher probability of default or late payment. The more frequently a borrower uses payday loan “huabei”, the more likely the borrower is to default or delay payment. Default or late payment is more likely to occur in male than in female, and in those who live in small cities than those who live in big cities. This paper tries to explain the bor-rowers' default from the aspect of “robbing Peter to pay Paul”, and the conclusions are helpful for supervising China' online lending market, improving personal credit system and regulating the cash loan market.

Key words: online lending, cash loan, robbing Peter to pay Paul, paying behavior

兰茹佳. 拆东墙补西墙——借款人“借贷还债”特征对还款行为的实证研究[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(5): 25-39.

Lan Rujia. An Empirical Study on Borrowers' Paying Behavior of “Robbing Peter to Pay Paul”[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(5): 25-39.

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