供应链安全对中国制造业自主创新能力的影响——基于2001-2020年产业数据的实证研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文将供应链安全划分为供应链敏感性和供应链弹性两个维度，聚焦关键核心技术被“卡脖子”的16个制造业产业领域，基于2001-2020年的产业数据，实证检验了供应链敏感性和供应链弹性对制造业自主创新能力的影响。研究发现，供应链敏感性对制造业自主创新能力有负向影响，供应链弹性对制造业自主创新能力有正向影响;作为调节变量，产业技术密度削弱供应链敏感性对制造业自主创新能力的负向影响，削弱供应链弹性对制造业自主创新能力的正向影响;产业脆弱程度增强供应链敏感性对制造业自主创新能力的负向影响，削弱供应链弹性对制造业自主创新能力的正向影响。

关键词: 供应链安全, 中国制造业, 自主创新能力, 产业技术密度, 产业脆弱程度

Abstract: This paper looks at the security of China's supply chain from two dimensions:sensitivity and elasticity of supply chain, and empirically examines the influence of supply chain sensitivity and elasticity on manufacturing industry's independent innovation capability based on China's 2001-2020 industrial data from 16 manufacturing sectors that suffer foreign stranglehold on core technolo-gies. It is found that supply chain sensitivity has a negative impact and supply chain elasticity has a positive impact on manufacturing in-dustry's independent innovation capability; as a moderating variable, industrial technology density weakens both the negative influence and the positive influence; industrial vulnerability enhances the negative influence but weakens the positive influence.

Key words: supply chain security, China's manufacturing industry, independent innovation capability, industrial technology density, industrial vulnerability

李盛竹, 任俊霖, 杜婷. 供应链安全对中国制造业自主创新能力的影响——基于2001-2020年产业数据的实证研究[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(5): 101-112.

Li Shengzhu, Ren Junlin, Du Ting. The Influence of Supply Chain Security on Independent Innovation Capability of China's Manufacturing Industry: An Empirical Study Based on China's 2001-2020 Industrial Data[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(5): 101-112.

参考文献

[1] Romer P. M. Endogenous Technological Change[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1990,98(5):71-102
[2] Aghion P., Howitt P. A. Model of Growth through Creative Destruction[J]. Econometrica, 1992,60(2):323-351
[3] Autor D. H., Dorn G. H., Pisano G., et al. Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation:Evidence from U.S. Patents[R]. SSRB Working Paper, 2020,2(3):357-74
[4] 诸竹君,袁逸铭,焦嘉嘉.工业自动化与制造业创新行为[J].中国工业经济, 2022,(7):84-102 Zhu Z. J., Yuan Y. M., Jiao J. J. Industrial Automation and Manufacturing Innovation Behavior[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2022,(7):84-102
[5] Wei S. J., Xie Z., Zhang X. From "Made in China" to "Innovated in China": Necessity, Prospect, and Challenges[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2017,31(1):49-70
[6] 李天健,赵学军.新中国保障产业链供应链安全的探索[J].管理世界, 2022,38(9):31-41 Li T. J., Zhao X. J. The Exploration on Ensuring Industrial Chain and Supply Chain Security in New China[J]. Journal of Man-agement World, 2022,38(9):31-41
[7] 张杰.强化国有企业对中国国家自主创新能力体系支撑力的途径与对策[J].河北学刊, 2022,42(6):119-129 Zhang J. Research on the Ways and Countermeasures to Strengthen the Support of State-owned Enterprises to China's National In-dependent Innovation Ability System[J]. Hebei Academic Journal, 2022,42(6):119-129
[8] 石建勋,卢丹宁.着力提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平研究[J].财经问题研究, 2023,(2):3-13 Shi J. X., Lu D. N. The Study on Making China's Industrial and Supply Chains More Resilient and Secure[J]. Research on Fi-nancial and Economic Issues, 2023,(2):3-13
[9] Keohane O. R., Nye J. S. Power and Interdependence[J]. Survival, 2008,15(4):158-165
[10] Zsidisin G. A., Wagner S. M. Do Perceptions Become Reality?The Moderating Role of Supply Chain Resiliency on Disruption Occurrence[J]. Journal of Business Logistics, 2010,31(2):1-20
[11] Blackhurst J., Kaitlin S. D., Craighead C. W. An Empirically Derived Framework of Global Supply Resiliency[J]. Journal of Business Logistics, 2011,32(4):374-391
[12] Cuervo-Cazurra A., Annique Un C. Why Some Firms Never Invest in Formal R&D[J]. Strategic Management Journal, 2010,31(7):759-779
[13] Bloom N., Van Reenen J., Williams H. A Toolkit of Policies to Promote Innovation[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2019,33(3):163-184
[14] 王淑娟,叶蜀君,解方圆.金融发展、金融创新与高新技术企业自主创新能力——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析[J].软科学, 2018,32(3):10-15 Wang S. J., Ye S. J., Xie F. Y. Financial Development,Financial Innovation and the Independent Innovation Ability of High-Tech Enterprises-Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Provincial Panel Data[J]. Soft Science, 2018,32(3):10-15
[15] Buzan B., Wæver O. Security:A New Framework for Analysis[M]. London:Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998
[16] 余潇枫,谢贵平."选择性"再建构:安全化理论的新拓展[J].世界经济与政治, 2015,(9):104-121 Yu X. F., Xie G. P. "Selectivity" Reconstruction:Extending the Concept of Securitization[J]. World Economics and Politics, 2015,(9):104-121
[17] Liow J. C. Malaysia's Approach to Indonesian Migrant Labor:Securitization, Politics, or Catharsis?[M]//Non-traditional Secu-rity in Asia. London:Routledge, 2017
[18] Huntington S. P., Dunn S. Who Are We?The Challenges to America's National Identity[M]. New York:Simon and Schuster, 2004
[19] 张杰,陈容.中国产业链供应链安全的风险研判与维护策略[J].改革, 2022,(4):12-20 Zhang J., Chen R. Risk Judgment and Its Maintenance Strategy of China's Industrial Chain and Supply Chain Security[J]. Re-form, 2022,(4):12-20
[20] 张树山,胡化广,孙磊,等.供应链数字化与供应链安全稳定——一项准自然实验[J].中国软科学, 2021,(12):21-30 Zhang S. S., Hu H. G., Sun L., et al. Supply Chain Digitization and Supply Chain Security and Stability-A Quasi-natural Ex-periment[J]. China Soft Science, 2021,(12):21-30
[21] 仲伟俊,梅姝娥,浦正宁.关键核心技术及其攻关策略研究——基于产业链供应链安全稳定视角[J].系统管理学报, 2022,31(6):1162-1168 Zhong W. J., Mei S. E., Pu Z. N. Key Core Technologies and Their Tackling Strategies:Based on the Perspective of Security and Stability on Industrial Chain and Supply Chain[J]. Journal of Systems&Management, 2022,31(6):1162-1168
[22] 赵可金,郎昆.中美竞争下的供应链安全研究[J].东北亚论坛, 2022,31(2):19-39 Zhao K. J., Lang K. On the Supply Chain Security under China-U.S. Competition[J]. Northeast Asia Forum, 2022,31(2):19-39
[23] 王宇奇,高岩,滕春贤.扰动下的供应链弹性研究回顾与拓展[J].管理评论, 2017,29(12):204-216 Wang Y. Q., Gao Y., Teng C. X. Literature Review and Research Prospects of Supply Chain Resilience under Disruption[J]. Management Review, 2017,29(12):204-216
[24] 周桂凤.零售企业战略导向、供应链敏感性与经营绩效相关性研究[J].商业经济研究, 2021,(3):112-114 Zhou G. F. A Study on the Correlation between Strategic Orientation, Supply Chain Sensitivity, and Business Performance of Re-tail Enterprises[J]. Journal of Commercial Economics, 2021,(3):112-114
[25] 肖金梅,刘猛,洪锐凌.出口依赖型企业财产保险需求研究——来自中国制造业企业的经验证据[J].管理评论, 2021,33(6):65-75 Xiao J. M., Liu M., Hong R. L. Research on Property Insurance Demand of Export-dependent Firms:Empirical Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms[J]. Management Review, 2021,33(6):65-75
[26] Liu R., Rosell C. Import Competition, Multi-product Firms, and Basic Innovation[J]. Journal of International Economics, 2013, 9:220-234
[27] Liu Q., Qiu L. D. Intermediate Input Imports and Innovations:Evidence from Chinese Firms' Patent Filings[J]. Journal of In-ternational Economics, 2016,103:166-183
[28] 邢孝兵,徐洁香,王阳.进口贸易的技术创新效应:抑制还是促进[J].国际贸易问题, 2018,(6):11-26 Xing X. B., Xu J. X., Wang Y. Effect of Import on Innovation:Inhibitory or Stimulative[J]. Journal of International Trade, 2018,(6):11-26
[29] 吴群,唐亚辉,李梦晓,等.物流技术创新对供应链柔性的影响:一个有调节的中介模型[J].管理评论, 2020,32(11):270-281 Wu Q., Tang Y. H., Li X. M., et al. The Impact of Logistics Technology Innovation on Supply Chain Flexibility:A Moderated Mediation Model[J]. Management Review, 2020,32(11):270-281
[30] Holcomb M. C., Ponomarov S. Y., Manrodt K. B. The Relationship of Supply Chain Visibility to Firm Performance[J]. Supply Chain Forum:An International Journal, 2011,12(2):32-45
[31] 朱新球.大数据分析能力如何影响供应链绩效——基于供应链弹性视域的分析[J].中国流通经济, 2021,35(6):84-93 Zhu X. Q. How Big Data Analysis Capability Affects Supply Chain Performance-An Analysis Based on Supply Chain Resilience[J]. China Business and Market, 2021,35(6):84-93
[32] 刘璠,刘家国.供应链中断应对策略研究评述[J].中南财经政法大学学报, 2019,(3):148-156 Liu F., Liu J. G. A Review of Supply Chain Disruption Response[J]. Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, 2019,(3):148-156
[33] Ismail G., Serhiy Y. P. Does Firm Innovativeness Enable Effective Responses to Supply Chain Disruptions?An Empirical Study[J]. Supply Chain Management:An International Journal, 2013,18(6):604-617
[34] 刘璠.企业创新性、创新程度、中断严重度和供应链弹性的关系研究[J].宏观经济研究, 2015,(4):114-122 Liu F. Research on the Relationship between Enterprise Innovation, Degree of Innovation, Severity of Interruption, and Supply Chain Elasticity[J]. Macroeconomics, 2015,(4):114-122
[35] Anoop K. S., Saurav D., Mahapatra S. S. Evaluation of Performance Index in Resilient Supply Chain:A Fuzzy-based Approach[J]. Benchmarking:An International Journal, 2017,24(1):118-142
[36] Scholten K., Schilder S. The Role of Collaboration in Supply Chain Resilience[J]. Supply Chain Management:An International Journal, 2015,20(4):471-484
[37] 简兆权,曾经莲,刘艳.服务供应链外部整合对企业运营绩效的影响机理分析——被调节的中介效应[J].管理评论, 2021,33(8):290-301 Jian Z. Q., Zeng J. L., Liu Y. The Effect Mechanism of Service Supply Chain External Integration on Operational Performance:A Moderated Mediation[J]. Management Review, 2021,33(8):290-301
[38] 商燕劼,庞庆华.供应链企业间战略共识如何影响技术创新绩效——知识共享与供应链协同的作用[J].科技进步与对策, 2021,38(11):125-134 Shang Y. J., Pang Q. H. How dose Strategic Consensus Influence Technological Innovation Performance of Supply Chain Enterpri-ses:Effects of Knowledge Sharing and Supply Chain Collaboration[J]. Science&Technology Progress and Policy, 2021,38(11):125-134
[39] 刘婧怡.供应链中断:成因、后果及对策——供应链治理视角下的文献述评[J].中南财经政法大学学报, 2022,(4):130-144 Liu J. Y. Supply Chain Disruption:Causes, Consequences and Countermeasures:Literature Review from the Perspective of Sup-ply Chain Governance[J]. Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, 2022,(4):130-144
[40] 刘兰剑,王晓琦.创新路径、技术密度与制造业国际竞争力之间的关系——基于17个行业的实证研究[J].中国科技论坛, 2020,(10):114-121 Liu L. J., Wang X. Q. Relationship between Innovation Path, Technology Density and Manufacturing International Competitive-ness-Based on Empirical Research in 17 Industries[J]. Forum on Science and Technology in China, 2020,(10):114-121
[41] 黄群慧,贺俊.中国制造业的核心能力、功能定位与发展战略——兼评《中国制造2025》[J].中国工业经济, 2015,(6):5-17 Huang Q. H., He J. The Core Capability, Function and Strategy of Chinese Manufacturing Industry-Comment on "Chinese Man-ufacturing 2025" [J]. China Industrial Economics, 2015,(6):5-17
[42] 李舒沁,王灏晨,汪寿阳.人工智能背景下制造业劳动力结构影响研究——以工业机器人发展为例[J].管理评论, 2021, 33(3):307-314 Li S. Q., Wang H. C., Wang S. Y. Research on the Factors that Influence the Labor Structure of the Manufacturing Ilndustry in the Context of Artificial Intelligence-Taking the Development of Industrial Robots as an Example[J]. Management Review, 2021,33(3):307-314
[43] 刘志东,高洪玮.中国制造业出口对美国企业创新的影响[J].中国工业经济, 2019,(8):174-192 Liu Z. D., Gao H. W. The Influence of Chinese Manufacturing Export on U.S. Corporate Innovation[J]. China Industrial Eco-nomics, 2019,(8):174-192
[44] 杨仁发,汪青青.生产性服务投入、技术创新与制造业国际竞争力[J].山西财经大学学报, 2018,40(9):62-75 Yang R. F., Wang Q. Q. Productive Service Input, Technological Innovation and International Competitiveness of Manufacturing Industry[J]. Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, 2018,40(9):62-75
[45] White G. F. Natural Hazards:Local, National, Global[M]. New York:Oxford University Press, 1974
[46] 康健,胡祖光.产业集群脆弱性测度模式初探[J].经济地理, 2012,(2):111-115 Kang J., Hu Z. G. The Preliminary Discussion on Industrial Cluster Vulnerability Measuring Model[J]. Economic Geography,2012,(2):111-115
[47] 李玉山,陆远权.产业扶贫政策能降低脱贫农户生计脆弱性吗?——政策效应评估与作用机制分析[J].财政研究, 2020,(5):63-77 Li Y. S., Lu Y. Q. Can Industrial Poverty Alleviation Policies Reduce the Livelihood Vulnerability of Out-of-Poor Farmers?-Policy Effect Evaluation and Mechanism Analysis[J]. Public Finance Research, 2020,(5):63-77
[48] 杨继军,金梦圆,张晓磊.全球供应链安全的战略考量与中国应对[J].国际贸易, 2022,(1):51-57 Yang J. J., Jin M. Y., Zhang X. L. The Strategic Considerations and China's Response on the Background of Global Supply Chain Security[J]. Intertrade, 2022,(1):51-57
[49] Balli H. O., Sorensen B. E. Interaction Effects in Econometrics[J]. Empirical Economics, 2013,45(1):583-603
[50] 李婧,宫庆彬,唐蘅,等.美国关键矿产供应链安全风险防控及启示[J].情报杂志, 2022,41(6):58-65 Li J., Gong Q. B., Tang H., et al. Prevention and Control of Security Risks in the U.S. Critical Minerals Supply Chain[J]. Jour-nal of Intelligence, 2022,41(6):58-65