新型基础设施存量规模测算与实证研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 数字经济时代，新型基础设施成为破解区域资源禀赋不均、颠覆渐进式区域推进战略等区域发展不平衡不充分问题的重要抓手。然而，探寻新型基础设施社会经济效益的一个重要前提是，如何建立新型基础设施存量规模测算框架，以识别不同类型新型基础设施的历史发展规律和空间分布特征。本文创新性地结合资本存量法和实物量法构建了新型基础设施存量规模测算理论框架，并采用核密度与Dagum基尼系数估计我国2003—2022年新型基础设施发展的区域差异性和均衡性。结果显示，全国新型基础设施资本存量正处于加速增长期，但东部和中西部地区新型基础设施资本存量的差距正在逐步拉大。融合基础设施规模在2009年后逐渐超越信息基础设施，成为带动新型基础设施蓬勃发展的主要动力。基于Kernel密度估计结果表明，新型基础设施存量规模的空间非均衡性加剧。东部和中部地区规模差异逐步增加，尽管西部地区新型基础设施规模取得快速增长，但区域内基尼系数大幅上升。此外，区域间差异仍是导致我国新型基础设施地区差异的主要原因。本研究提出的新型基础设施存量规模测算理论框架和实证分析结果能够为后续研究新型基础设施适度超前布局的时空作用机制提供理论基础和数据支撑。

关键词: 新型基础设施, 存量规模, 资本存量, 实物量, 区域平衡充分发展

Abstract: The accelerating development of the digital economy has made new infrastructures an important tool to overcome the unevenness of regional resource endowments as well as the imbalance and inadequacy of regional development. However, an important prerequisite for exploring the socio-economic benefits of new infrastructures is to determine how to establish a framework for measuring the stock size of new infrastructures to understand the historical development patterns and spatial distribution characteristics of different types of new infrastructures. This paper combines the capital stock method and the physical quantity method to construct a theoretical framework for measuring the new infrastructure stock, and adopts the kernel density and Dagum's Gini coefficient to estimate the regional heterogeneity and unbalance of new infrastructure in China. The results show that the national capital stock of new infrastructures is in an accelerating growth stage, which sees a widening gap between eastern China and central-western China. Converged infrastructure has surpassed, in scale, information infrastructure since 2009 and become the main driving force for the vigorous development of new infrastructures. The results based on Kernel density estimation show that the spatial unbalance of new infrastructure stock has intensified, as evidenced by starker scale difference between eastern China and central China, and the intra-regional Gini coefficient in western China has risen sharply despite the rapid growth in the scale of local new infrastructures. In addition, inter-regional development gap is still the main reason for the inter-regional differences of new infrastructures in China. The theoretical framework for measuring the size of new infrastructure stock and the results of empirical analyses proposed in this study can provide a theoretical basis and data support for any potential research on the spatial and temporal analysis of new infrastructure construction.

Key words: new infrastructure, stock size, capital stock, physical quantity, balanced and adequate regional development

洪竞科, 唐琢, 刘炳胜. 新型基础设施存量规模测算与实证研究[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(12): 72-83.

Hong Jingke, Tang Zhuo, Liu Bingsheng. Scale Measurement and Empirical Study of New Infrastructure Stock[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(12): 72-83.

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