中国绿色创新政策执行有效性及其效应测算——基于政策文本的量化研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 绿色技术创新是同时实现碳中和与经济高质量发展的关键。本文对我国2006—2020年中央层面颁布的246份政策文本进行量化评价，引入双边随机前沿模型，捕捉绿色创新政策执行的有效性对绿色技术创新的影响。研究发现，我国绿色创新政策的平均有效性整体呈波动上升的趋势。命令型、市场型和信息型的政策工具在治理期限和治理效果上显著不同。平均而言，绿色创新政策的执行治理效应使得绿色技术创新水平高于前沿水平16.1%，而政策执行的挤出效应以8.5%的幅度降低地区绿色技术创新水平，两者抵消后的综合作用使得实际绿色技术创新水平高于前沿水平7.6%。绿色创新政策的治理效果呈“W型”的时间波动，中部地区的政策治理效果亟待提升。另外，在产业结构和经济发展水平的影响下，政策执行强度对绿色创新净效应的影响呈现“U”型趋势；中等金融环境水平的地区，地方政府反而有更强的动机推动政策执行，引发更大的绿色创新“涟漪效应”。本研究有助于动态评估绿色创新政策的治理效果，为实现绿色创新高质量发展提供针对性的启示。

关键词: 绿色技术创新, 政策执行, 双边随机前沿模型, 政策量化

Abstract: Green technology innovation is the key to achieving carbon neutrality and economic development. This paper provides a quantitative evaluation of 246 policy texts issued in China between 2006 and 2020. A bilateral stochastic frontier model is introduced to capture the impact of green innovation policy and its implementation deviation on green technology innovation. The results are as follows． The annual quantity of environmental innovation policies follows the same trend as the total effectiveness of the policies, while the average effectiveness exhibits a trend of fluctuating upward. There is significant heterogeneity in the effectiveness and sustainability of policy instruments. On average, the implementation and governance benefits of environmental policies make the green technology innovation level 16% higher than the frontier level, while the policy implementation deviation reduces the regional green technology innovation level by 8.3%. The net effect of these two opposing forces makes the actual level of green technology innovation 7.7% above the frontier level. The driving effect of green innovation policies is characterized by a “W-shaped” temporal distribution. It is very necessary to enhance the policy governance effectiveness in central China. In addition, under the influence of industrial structure and economic development, the impact of the intensity of policy implementation on the net effect shows a “U” shape. In financially medium-developed regions, local governments are more motivated to put policies into practice, thus leading to significant “ripple effect” of green innovation. This paper contributes to the dynamic assessment of the governance effects of green innovation policies and provides targeted insights for the development of high-quality of green innovation.

Key words: green technology innovation, policy implementation deviation, bilateral stochastic frontier model, policy quantification

程飞, 陈通, 景晓栋. 中国绿色创新政策执行有效性及其效应测算——基于政策文本的量化研究[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(12): 133-144.

Cheng Fei, Chen Tong, Jing Xiaodong. Measuring the Effectiveness of Green Innovation Policy Implementation in China—A Quantitative Study Based on Policy Texts[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(12): 133-144.

参考文献

[1] 卞晨,初钊鹏,孙正林.环境规制、绿色信贷与企业绿色技术创新的政策仿真——基于政府干预的演化博弈视角[J].管理评论, 2022,34(10):122-133 Bian C., Chu Z. P., Sun Z. L. Policy Simulation Modeling Environmental Regulation and Green Credit in Enterprise's Green Innovation in Technology:An Evolutionary Game Analysis of Government Intervention[J]. Management Review, 2022,34(10):122-133
[2] Porter M. E., Van der Linde C. Toward a New Conception of the Environment-competitiveness Relationship[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1995,9(4):97-118
[3] Wang X., Zou H. Study on the Effect of Wind Power Industry Policy Types on the Innovation Performance of Different Ownership Enterprises:Evidence from China[J]. Energy Policy, 2018,122:241-252
[4] Ran R. Perverse Incentive Structure and Policy Implementation Gap in China's Local Environmental Politics[J]. Journal of Environmental Policy&Planning, 2013,15(1):17-39
[5] Borghesi S., Cainelli G., Mazzanti M. Linking Emission Trading to Environmental Innovation:Evidence from the Italian Manufacturing Industry[J]. Research Policy, 2015,44(3):669-683
[6] 李慧龙,尉馨元.不只是偏差:"雷声大雨点小"政策的多重逻辑——基于"激励-冲突"框架的类型分析[J].中国行政管理, 2021,(10):138-145 Li H. L., Wei X. Y. More than Deviation:The Multiple Logics of "Loud but Little Implemented" Policies-Typological Analysis Based on "Incentive-Conflict" Framework[J]. Chinese Public Administration, 2021,(10):138-145
[7] Zhao N., Liu X., Pan C., et al. The Performance of Green Innovation:From an Efficiency Perspective[J]. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2021,78:101062
[8] 刘金科,肖翊阳.中国环境保护税与绿色创新:杠杆效应还是挤出效应?[J].经济研究, 2022,57(1):72-88 Liu J. K., Xiao Y. Y. China's Environmental Protection Tax and Green Innovation:Incentive Effect or Crowding-out Effect?[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2022,57(1):72-88
[9] Wang H., Cui H., Zhao Q. Effect of Green Technology Innovation on Green Total Factor Productivity in China:Evidence from Spatial Durbin Model Analysis[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021,288:125624
[10] 谢荣辉.绿色技术进步、正外部性与中国环境污染治理[J].管理评论, 2021,33(6):111-121 Xie R. H. Green Technology Progress, Positive Externality and Environmental Pollution Control of China[J]. Management Review, 2021,33(6):111-121
[11] 解学梅,王若怡,霍佳阁.政府财政激励下的绿色工艺创新与企业绩效:基于内容分析法的实证研究[J].管理评论, 2020,32(5):109-124 Xie X. M., Wang R. Y., Huo J. G. Green Process Innovation and Corporate Performance in the Context of Government's Financial Incentive:An Empirical Study Based on Content Analysis[J]. Management Review, 2020,32(5):109-124
[12] Konisky D. M. Regulatory Competition and Environmental Enforcement:Is There a Race to the Bottom?[J]. American Journal of Political Science, 2007,51(4):853-872
[13] Zhang C., Lu Y., Guo L., et al. The Intensity of Environmental Regulation and Technological Progress of Production[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2011,46(2):113-124
[14] Wang Y., Sun X., Guo X. Environmental Regulation and Green Productivity Growth:Empirical Evidence on the Porter Hypothesis from OECD Industrial Sectors[J]. Energy Policy, 2019,132:611-619
[15] Huang L., Lei Z. How Environmental Regulation Affect Corporate Green Investment:Evidence from China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021,279:123560
[16] Xie R., Yuan Y., Huang J. Different Types of Environmental Regulations and Heterogeneous Influence on "Green" Productivity:Evidence from China[J]. Ecological Economics, 2017,132:104-112
[17] Borghesi S., Cainelli G., Mazzanti M. Linking Emission Trading to Environmental Innovation:Evidence from the Italian Manufacturing Industry[J]. Research Policy, 2015,44(3):669-683
[18] Veugelers R. Which Policy Instruments to Induce Clean Innovating?[J]. Research Policy, 2012,41(10):1770-1778
[19] Li L., Ren X., Yang Y., et al. Analysis and Recommendations for Onshore Wind Power Policies in China[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2018,82:156-167
[20] 钟兴菊.地方性知识与政策执行成效——环境政策地方实践的双重话语分析[J].公共管理学报, 2017,14(1):38-48 Zhong X. J. Local Knowledge and Policy Enforcement Effectiveness-Analysis on the Dual Discourses of Local Practices towards Environmental Policies[J]. Journal of Public Management, 2017,14(1):38-48
[21] 唐啸,胡鞍钢,杭承政.二元激励路径下中国环境政策执行——基于扎根理论的研究发现[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2016,31(3):38-49 Tang X., Hu A. G., Hang C. Z. Binary Incentive Mechanism in China's Environmental Policy Implementation-A Research Based on Grounded Theory[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2016,31(3):38-49
[22] 丁煌,李晓飞.中国政策执行力研究评估:2003-2012年[J].公共行政评论, 2013,6(4):130-157 Ding H., Li X. F. An Evaluation on Policy Implementation Ability Research in China:2003-2012[J]. Journal of Public Administration, 2013,6(4):130-157
[23] 郑石明,要蓉蓉,魏萌.中国气候变化政策工具类型及其作用——基于中央层面政策文本的分析[J].中国行政管理, 2019,(12):87-95 Zheng S. M., Yao R. R., Wei M. The Types and Functions of China's Climate Change Policy Instruments:Based on an Analysis of Central-level Policy Texts[J]. Chinese Public Administration, 2019,(12):87-95
[24] 李胜会,朱绍棠.科技评价是否有效促进了区域科技创新?——基于政策驱动的视角[J].科研管理, 2021,42(7):11-21 Li S. H., Zhu S. T. Has S&T Evaluation Effectively Promoted Regional S&T Innovation?—A Study from the Policy-driven Perspective[J]. Science Research Management, 2021,42(7):11-21
[25] Wang X., Zou H., Zheng Y., et al. How will Different Types of Industry Policies and Their Mixes Affect the Innovation Performance of Wind Power Enterprises?Based on Dual Perspectives of Regional Innovation Environment and Enterprise Ownership[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2019,251:109586
[26] Liao Z. Content Analysis of China's Environmental Policy Instruments on Promoting Firms' Environmental Innovation[J]. Environmental Science&Policy, 2018,88:46-51
[27] 肖振红,李炎.高专利密集度制造业绿色创新路径演化分析——知识产权保护强度视角[J].管理评论, 2022,34(11):88-98 Xiao Z. H., Li Y. Analysis on the Evolution of Green Innovation Path of Highly Patent-intensive Manufacturing-Perspective of the Intensity of Intellectual Property Protection[J]. Management Review, 2022,34(11):88-98
[28] Cai X., Zhu B., Zhang H., et al. Can Direct Environmental Regulation Promote Green Technology Innovation in Heavily Polluting Industries?Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2020,746:140810
[29] 程翔,鲍新中,张瑞,等.基于政策量化的京津冀地区科技金融政策有效性分析[J].科技管理研究, 2018,38(20):62-68 Cheng X., Bao X. Z., Zhang R., et al. Analysis on the Efficiency of Science and Technology Financial Policy in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Region Based on Policy Quantification[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 2018,38(20):62-68
[30] Zhao X., Meng X., Zhou Y., et al. Policy Inducement Effect in Energy Efficiency:An Empirical Analysis of China[J]. Energy, 2020,211:118726
[31] 孙燕铭,谌思邈.长三角区域绿色技术创新效率的时空演化格局及驱动因素[J].地理研究, 2021,40(10):2743-2759 Sun Y. M., Shen S. M. The Spatio-Temporal Evolutionary Pattern and Driving Forces Mechanism of Green Technology Innovation Efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta Region[J]. Geographical Research, 2021,40(10):2743-2759
[32] 肖权,赵路.异质性环境规制、FDI与中国绿色技术创新效率[J].现代经济探讨, 2020,(4):29-40 Xiao Q., Zhao L. Heterogeneous Environmental Regulation, FDI and the Efficiency of China's Green Technology Innovation[J]. Modern Economic Research, 2020,(4):29-40
[33] 梁文泉,陆铭.后工业化时代的城市:城市规模影响服务业人力资本外部性的微观证据[J].经济研究, 2016,51(12):90-103 Liang W. Q., Lu M. Cities in the Post-industrial Economy:How City Size Affects Human Capital Externality in Service Industry?[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2016,51(12):90-103
[34] 金戈.中国基础设施与非基础设施资本存量及其产出弹性估算[J].经济研究, 2016,51(5):41-56 Jin G. Infrastructure and Non-infrastructure Capital Stocks in China and Their Productivity:A New Estimate[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2016,51(5):41-56
[35] 温涛,王汉杰,韩佳丽.城镇化有效驱动了居民消费吗?——兼论人口城镇化与空间城镇化效应[J].中国行政管理, 2017,(10):92-99 Wen T., Wang H. J., Han J. L. Does the Urbanization Drive the Consumption Effectively?—The Effect of Population Urbanization and Space Urbanization[J]. Chinese Public Administration, 2017,(10):92-99
[36] 陈凡,周民良.国家级承接产业转移示范区是否加剧了地区环境污染[J].山西财经大学学报, 2019,41(10):42-54 Chen F., Zhou M. L. Does National Undertaking Industrial Transfer Demonstration Areas Aggravate Regional Environmental Pollution[J]. Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, 2019,41(10):42-54
[37] 康鹏辉,茹少峰.环境规制的绿色创新双边效应[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2020,30(10):93-104 Kang P. H., Ru S. F. Bilateral Effects of Environmental Regulation on Green Innovation[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2020,30(10):93-104
[38] Du H., Guo Y., Lin Z., et al. Effects of the Joint Prevention and Control of Atmospheric Pollution Policy on Air Pollutants-A Quantitative Analysis of Chinese Policy Texts[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2021,300:113721
[39] 黎文靖,郑曼妮.实质性创新还是策略性创新?——宏观产业政策对微观企业创新的影响[J].经济研究, 2016,51(4):60-73 Li W. J., Zheng M. N. Is It Substantive Innovation or Strategic Innovation?—Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Micro-enterprises' Innovation[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2016,51(4):60-73
[40] 张杰,陈容,郑姣姣.策略性创新抑或真实性创新——来自中国企业设立研发机构的证据[J].经济管理, 2022,44(3):5-23 Zhang J., Chen R., Zheng J. J. Strategic Innovation or Real Innovation:Evidence from Chinese Enterprises to Set up R&D Institutions[J]. Business and Management Journal, 2022,44(3):5-23