《长江经济带发展规划纲要》能促进长江流域生态文明建设吗?

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文利用2003—2019年中国30个省份的面板数据，从六个维度构建了中国30个省份的生态文明建设综合指标体系，并将长江经济带11个省份作为实验组，采用广义合成控制法和双重差分法，考量《长江经济带发展规划纲要》的实施对该区域生态文明建设的政策影响，进一步运用中介效应模型对其作用机制展开实证检验。结果表明：该规划对长江经济带的生态文明建设具有显著的促进作用，对长江流域东部地区的促进效应在整体上最优，西部地区次之，中部地区最差，且对上海、江苏、云南、重庆、江西、浙江六省市生态文明建设的促进作用更明显。相较于科技创新、产业结构升级、对外开放和地区经济增长的中介效应不显著，环境规制、新型城镇化和就业结构优化在促进区域生态文明建设方面的中介效应更为显著。

关键词: 长江经济带发展规划, topsis熵权法, 广义合成控制法, 生态文明建设

Abstract: This paper uses panel data from 30 provinces and cities in China from 2003 to 2019 to construct a comprehensive indicator system for ecological civilization construction from six dimensions. Then, 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are selected as experimental groups, and the generalized synthetic control method (GSCM) and double difference method are used to consider the policy impact of the promulgation of the Development Planning Outline of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on the construction of regional ecological civilization, Further the mediation effect model is used to empirically test its mechanism of action. The results indicate that the plan has a significant promoting effect on the ecological civilization construction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and to be specific, the effect is most, less and least significant respectively on eastern, western and central Yangtze River Basin. Moreover, the promoting effect on the ecological civilization construction of Shanghai, Jiangsu, Yunnan, Chongqing, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang is more obvious. The mediating effect of environmental regulation, new urbanization, and employment structure optimization in promoting regional ecological civilization construction is more significant than that of technological innovation, industrial structure upgrading, opening-up, and regional economic growth.

Key words: development plan of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, topsis entropy weight method, generalized synthetic control method, ecological civilization construction

许广月, 蒋宏宇, 姜明奇. 《长江经济带发展规划纲要》能促进长江流域生态文明建设吗?[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(11): 14-25.

Xu Guangyue, Jiang Hongyu, Jiang Mingqi. Can the Outline of the Yangtze River Economic Belt Development Plan Promote the Construction of Ecological Civilization in the Yangtze River Basin[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(11): 14-25.

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