基础货币投放渠道变迁对货币政策有效性的影响

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 货币政策有效性下降是我国宏观政策近年来的典型事实，而探索其原因及优化措施成为理论界与实务界的重要议题。为此，本文基于基础货币投放渠道变迁视角，在理论分析的基础上，通过宏观经济效应分析与微观机制检验，多层次论证基础货币投放渠道变迁如何影响我国货币政策有效性。研究得出：第一，根据具有时变参数的VAR模型估计结果，不同基础货币投放渠道的宏观经济效应存在较大差异，但并未发现明显的时变特征，因此我国货币政策有效性下降的重要原因之一是基础货币投放渠道的结构性改变；第二，在微观机制方面，不同基础货币投放渠道对企业投资的提升作用存在较大差异，这是基础货币投放影响货币政策有效性的重要渠道；第三，不同基础货币投放渠道缓解企业融资约束的能力具有显著区别。籍此，本文为优化我国货币政策有效性提出了富有建设性的建议。

关键词: 基础货币投放渠道, 货币政策有效性, 企业投资, 融资约束

Abstract: The decline in the effectiveness of monetary policy is a typical fact of China's macroeconomic policies in recent years, so exploring the underlying reasons and optimization measures has become an important topic in the theoretical and practical circles. For this reason, based on the perspective of the changes in the distribution channels of monetary base, this paper first conducts a theoretical analysis, and then demonstrates at multiple levels how the changes in the distribution channels of monetary base affect the effectiveness of China's monetary policy through macroeconomic effect analysis and micro-mechanism testing. The research reaches the following conclusions. First, according to the estimation results of the VAR model with time-varying parameters, the macroeconomic effects of different channels of monetary base are quite different, but no obvious time-varying characteristics have been found, so one of the important reasons for the decline in the effectiveness of China's monetary policy is the structural changes of distribution channels of monetary base. Second, in terms of micro-mechanisms, there are big differences in the effects of different distribution channels of monetary base on corporate investment, which is an important channel for the distribution of monetary base to affect the effectiveness of monetary policy. Third, there are significant differences in the ability of different distribution channels of monetary base to ease corporate financing constraints. Based on this, this paper puts forward constructive suggestions for optimizing the effectiveness of China's monetary policy.

Key words: distribution channels of monetary base, the effectiveness of monetary policy, corporate investment, financing constraints

王少林, 林建浩, 徐淑一. 基础货币投放渠道变迁对货币政策有效性的影响[J]. 管理评论, 2024, 36(1): 71-86.

Wang Shaolin, Lin Jianhao, Xu Shuyi. The Influence of the Transition of Distribution Channels of Monetary Base on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy[J]. Management Review, 2024, 36(1): 71-86.

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