管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2023, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (9): 312-323.

• 公共管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

居民养老保险对老年人劳动供给的影响——基于断点回归的研究

梁涵1, 丁宇刚2, 陈华1   

  1. 1. 中央财经大学保险学院, 北京 100081;
    2. 广东外语外贸大学金融学院/金融开放与资产管理研究中心, 广东 510006
  • 收稿日期:2021-08-31 出版日期:2023-09-28 发布日期:2023-10-31
  • 通讯作者: 丁宇刚(通讯作者),广东外语外贸大学金融学院讲师,博士。
  • 作者简介:梁涵,中央财经大学保险学院博士研究生;陈华,中央财经大学保险学院教授,博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（71974221）；教育部人文社会科学研究项目（19YJA630008）。

The Basic Old-age Insurance for Residents on the Labor Supply of the Elderly: Research on Regression-discontinuity

Liang Han1, Ding Yugang2, Chen Hua1   

  1. 1. School of Insurance, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081;
    2. School of Finance/Institute of Financial Openness and Asset Management, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangdong 510006
  • Received:2021-08-31 Online:2023-09-28 Published:2023-10-31

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摘要： 本文运用断点回归方法，研究了城乡居民养老保险对老年人劳动供给的影响。研究发现居民养老保险：（1）显著减少了老年人的每周工作时间，使断点附近获得养老保险金的群体要比未获得养老保险金的群体每周少工作5.32小时；（2）对女性劳动供给的影响要比男性更显著；（3）在2011年，对老年人劳动供给的影响并不显著，而在2013年和2015年随着养老保险给付水平的上升则陆续产生了显著的影响。进一步研究表明，对于收入水平较低或者预算约束越紧的群体，养老保险对其劳动供给的影响更加显著，即政策福利的主要受益者为经济状况较差的人群。这符合政策初衷，体现了社会的公平价值。这些发现对优化养老保险政策具有参考价值。

关键词: 城乡居民养老保险, 劳动供给, 老年人, 断点回归

Abstract: This paper studies the impact of basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents on the labor supply of the elderly using the regression-discontinuity method. Empirical evidences show that the policy reduces the working hours per week of the elderly significantly, so that the group who receives basic old-age insurance is 5.32 hours less than the group who does not. The impact of the policy on female labor supply is more significant than that on male. Besides, the impact of the policy on the labor supply of the elderly was not significant in 2011, but gradually became significant in 2013 and 2015 with the increase of benefit level. Further research shows that for groups with low income level or tighter budget constraints, the impact of endowment insurance on their labor supply is more significant. That is, the main beneficiaries of policy welfare are the people with poor economic conditions. This is in line with the original intention of the policy and reflects the fair value of society. These findings have reference value for optimizing endowment insurance policy.

Key words: old-age insurance for urban and rural residents, labor supply, the elderly, regression-discontinuity