管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2023, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (9): 236-251,261.

• 物流与供应链管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

新冠肺炎疫情背景下农产品供应链的中断与恢复策略研究——以冷鲜肉为例

吴军1, 巴依勒1, 孙李傲1, 张文港1, 孙靖文1, 李健2   

  1. 1. 北京化工大学经济管理学院, 北京 100029;
    2. 北京工业大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100124
  • 收稿日期:2022-01-13 出版日期:2023-09-28 发布日期:2023-10-31
  • 通讯作者: 孙李傲(通讯作者),北京化工大学经济管理学院博士研究生。
  • 作者简介:吴军,北京化工大学经济管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士;巴依勒,北京化工大学经济管理学院博士研究生;张文港,北京化工大学经济管理学院硕士研究生;孙靖文,北京化工大学经济管理学院硕士研究生;李健,北京工业大学经济与管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目（22BGL111）；国家自然科学基金重点项目（71932002）。

Research on the Disruption and Recovery Strategy of Agricultural Product Supply Chain under the Background of COVID-19——An Example of Chilled Fresh Pork Supply Chain

Wu Jun1, Ba Yile1, Sun Li'ao1, Zhang Wengang1, Sun Jingwen1, Li Jian2   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029;
    2. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124
  • Received:2022-01-13 Online:2023-09-28 Published:2023-10-31

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摘要： 新冠肺炎疫情的爆发给全球供应链系统带来了全方位的冲击，对影响国计民生的农产品供应链的冲击尤为显著。本文以冷鲜肉为例，构建了一个由供应商、制造商和零售商组成的三级农产品供应链模型，模型综合考虑了疫情所导致的供应商农产品滞销、制造商产能中断以及零售商需求突变三种典型中断场景，同时结合疫情下供应链中断的“长期干扰”“规模不可预测”“多节点同时中断”“在中断存在期间开始恢复”等特点，利用系统动力学方法研究了部分中断和完全中断两种情境下政府补贴对供应链累计利润的影响及其变化规律。研究发现，不同中断情境下政府补贴策略的选择对供应链系统恢复效果存在明显差异；大多情境下政府对供应商进行补贴更有利于供应链系统恢复。本文的研究结论为疫情期间的政府补贴策略提供了参考依据。

关键词: 新冠肺炎疫情, 农产品供应链, 系统动力学, 中断, 政府补贴

Abstract: The outbreak of COVID-19 has brought an all-round impact on the global supply chain system, especially on agricultural products. Taking chilled pork as an example, this paper establishes a three-echelon agricultural product supply chain model made up of the supplier, the manufacturer and the retailer, which takes into account three typical disruption scenes arising from COVID-19, namely dull sale on the supplier side, production capacity disruption on the manufacturer side and demand disruption on the retailer side. Given that supply chain disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is characterized by "long-term disruption", "unpredictable scale", "simultaneous disruption of multiple echelons" and "recovery during the disruption", this paper uses the method of system dynamics to analyze the influence of the government subsidy on the cumulative profits of supply chain under partial and complete disruption scenarios. It is found that the effects of the government subsidy on the recovery of the supply chain system varies dramatically in different scenarios; in most cases, granting government subsidies to supplier is more contributive to the supply chain system's recovery. The result could be a reference for the government subsidy strategy planning during a pandemic similar to COVID-19.

Key words: COVID-19, agricultural products supply chain, system dynamics, disruption, government subsidies