管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2023, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 3-16.

• 经济与金融管理 •    下一篇

中国新能源汽车10年推广效果研究:空间效应视角

刘颖琦1, 宋泽源2, 高宏伟1, 冯瑞虞1   

  1. 1. 北京交通大学经济管理学院, 北京 100044;
    2. 中国船舶集团有限公司综合技术经济研究院, 北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2020-10-26 出版日期:2023-03-28 发布日期:2023-04-28
  • 作者简介:刘颖琦，北京交通大学经济管理学院教授，博士生导师，博士；宋泽源，中国船舶集团有限公司综合技术经济研究院工程师，博士；高宏伟，北京交通大学经济管理学院副教授，博士；冯瑞虞，北京交通大学经济管理学院博士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点项目（16AGL004）；北京市哲学社会科学规划项目（19GLB030）。

Research on the 10-year Promotion Effect of New Energy Vehicles in China: A Spatial Effect Perspective

Liu Yingqi1, Song Zeyuan2, Gao Hongwei1, Feng Ruiyu1   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044;
    2. China Institute of Marine Technology and Economy, Beijing 100081
  • Received:2020-10-26 Online:2023-03-28 Published:2023-04-28

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摘要： 过去10年，新能源汽车产业在中央政府的政策支持，以及地方政府与企业的共同关注下得到了飞速发展。为了清晰地透视全国城市层面10年的产业推广效果，本文采用2018年全国296个城市的数据，基于空间视角，构建了新能源汽车产业推广效果的指标体系，运用空间自回归模型（SAR）和空间误差模型（SEM），分别从两个层面即示范与非示范城市、五大典型城市群，实证考察了城市政府支持、城市公共交通、城市科研能力等主要因素对新能源汽车在全国的推广效果。研究发现，无论是示范城市还是非示范城市，新能源汽车的推广都与经济发达程度相关，但在示范城市中的显现性更高；在五大城市群中，研发能力和空间溢出效应明显，其他因素的影响效应差异性大。在定量研究的基础上，本文进一步探讨了在竞争格局下，通过提高研发投入和建构产业体系，提升中国新能源汽车市场推广的空间溢出效应，进而促进新能源汽车产业发展的可能性。研究表明，未来中国新能源汽车推广，更多地应该是从区域视角，充分发挥城市的空间溢出效应，最终实现新能源汽车产业在城市、城市群和全国的发展。本文的研究结论对中国新能源汽车产业竞争力提升及市场推广具有重要的政策参考意义。

关键词: 新能源汽车推广, 空间计量模型, 空间溢出效应, 示范城市, 城市群

Abstract: In the past 10 years, the new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly under the policy support of the central government and the joint attention of local governments and enterprises. In order to clearly see the effects of industrial promotion at the national city level over the past 10 years, this paper uses the data of 296 prefecture-level cities across China in 2018, takes a spatial perspective to construct an indicator system for the promotion of the new energy vehicle industry, and uses spatial autoregressive model (SAR) and spatial error model (SEM) to empirically investigate, through two levels (i.e. demonstration and non-demonstration cities) and five typical urban agglomerations, the degree of influence of major factors (e.g. urban government support, urban public transportation and urban scientific research capabilities) on the promotion of new energy vehicles across the country. The study finds that no matter whether in demonstration or non-demonstration cities, the promotion of new energy vehicles is related to the degree of economic development, but the promtion effect is more visible in demonstration cities; in the five major urban agglomerations, the impact of R&D capabilities and the spatial spillover effect are obvious and the effect of other factors varies greatly. On the basis of quantitative research, this paper further explores the possibility to increase the space spillover effect of China’s new energy vehicle market promotion by increasing R&D investment and constructing an industrial system under a competitive landscape, and thereby promoting the development of the new energy vehicle industry. Our research shows that in the future, the promotion of new energy vehicles in China should be based more on the regional perspective to give full play to the spatial spillover effects of cities and ultimately realize the development of the new energy vehicle industry in cities, urban agglomerations and the country. The research conclusions of this paper provide important policy reference for the improvement of the competitiveness of China’s new energy automobile industry and its market promotion.

Key words: new energy vehicle promotion, spatial measurement model, spatial spillover effects, demonstation cities, urban agglomerations