管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2023, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (12): 53-62.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

电子元器件进口价格的传导效应——基于改进的投入产出价格模型

徐然1, 高翔2, 杨翠红2   

  1. 1. 青岛理工大学管理工程学院, 青岛 266520;
    2. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院, 北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2021-03-18 出版日期:2023-12-28 发布日期:2024-01-30
  • 通讯作者: 杨翠红（通讯作者），中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院研究员，博士生导师，博士。
  • 作者简介:徐然，青岛理工大学管理工程学院讲师，博士；高翔，中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院助理研究员，博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（72103184）；国家社会科学基金重大项目（19ZDA062）；国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目（71988101）。

Analysis on the Transmission Effect of Import Price of Electronic Components——Based on an Improved Input-Output Price Model

Xu Ran1, Gao Xiang2, Yang Cuihong2   

  1. 1. School of Management Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520;
    2. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
  • Received:2021-03-18 Online:2023-12-28 Published:2024-01-30

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摘要： 本文构建引入供求度和垄断效应的投入产出进口价格不完全传导模型，并区分加工贸易生产的异质性，测算了电子元器件进口价格上涨对各部门产品价格水平以及各类价格指数变化的传导效应。结果表明：电子元器件进口价格上涨对通信设备、计算机、视听设备等下游的电子设备类产品价格影响最大，国内市场中非外资电子设备制造企业由于供不应求，受到的价格传导效应会被增强。区分加工贸易的实证结果表明，国内一般价格水平受电子元器件进口价格上涨影响程度相对较小，居民消费价格指数和工业生产者出厂价格指数受影响的程度相比不区分加工贸易的基准测算结果分别下降29%和53%。相反地，由于大量的进口电子元器件被用于生产加工贸易出口电子产品，出口品价格指数受电子元器件进口价格上涨影响较大，相比不区分加工贸易的基准测算结果进一步增加30%，而这部分价格传导效应会通过全球价值链影响世界其他国家。

关键词: 投入产出模型, 价格传导, 电子元器件, 加工贸易

Abstract: This paper presents an incomplete input-output import price transmission model that incorporates the supply-and-demand and monopoly effect, and distinguishes the heterogeneity of processing trade production. The model is used to estimate the transmission effects of rising import prices of electronic components on the price levels of various sectors and price indices in China. The results show that the largest impact of rising import prices is on downstream electronic equipment products, including communication equipment, computers and audio-visual equipment. Non-foreign-funded electronic equipment manufacturers in the domestic market experience an enhanced price transmission effect due to supply shortage. Empirical results based on the model that distinguishes processing trade show that the impact on the general price level is relatively small. Specifically, compared to the benchmark results that do not distinguish processing trade, the impact on the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index decreases by 29% and 53%, respectively. In contrast, since a large number of imported electronic components are used in the production of electronic products for processing trade exports, downstream export prices are more sensitive to rising import prices. Compared to the benchmark results, the price transmission effect on the export price index increases by 30%, and the impact will reverberate through the global value chain, affecting other countries.

Key words: input-output model, price transmission, electronic components, processing trade