管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2023, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (10): 22-32.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

宏观经济条件与企业资本结构：来自中国上市公司的经验证据

刘顺通1,2, 杨博宇1,3, 汪成豪2, 胡毅1,4   

  1. 1. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100190;
    2. 中国农业银行总行, 北京 100005;
    3. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院, 北京 100190;
    4. 中国科学院大数据挖掘与知识管理重点实验室, 北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2021-03-09 出版日期:2023-10-28 发布日期:2023-11-27
  • 通讯作者: 胡毅（通讯作者），中国科学院大学经济与管理学院教授，博士生导师，博士。
  • 作者简介:刘顺通，中国科学院大学经济与管理学院博士研究生，中国农业银行高级专员；杨博宇，中国科学院大学经济与管理学院、中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院博士研究生；汪成豪，中国农业银行总行副处长，博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（72073124）；中国科学院大数据挖掘与知识管理重点实验室开放课题。

Macroeconomic Conditions and Corporate Capital Structure: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies

Liu Shuntong1,2, Yang Boyu1,3, Wang Chenghao2, Hu Yi1,4   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    2. Agricultural Bank of China, Beijing 100005;
    3. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    4. Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
  • Received:2021-03-09 Online:2023-10-28 Published:2023-11-27

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摘要： 宏观经济条件是影响企业最优资本结构的重要因素。本文立足于中国经济运行的实际情况，系统分析了宏观经济条件变化对企业资本结构的影响，并首次将影子银行因素纳入到研究框架内。本研究使用上市公司财务数据与宏观经济数据构建了企业资本结构的静态模型和偏动态调整模型，并重点讨论了影子银行因素对企业资本结构及其调整速度的影响。研究发现：其一，总市值和盈利水平与账面杠杆负相关，账面市值比、资本支出和非流动资产总额与账面杠杆正相关。总资产的影响呈现出异质性，在推升了国企账面杠杆的同时降低了民企账面杠杆。其二，工业增加值增速和上市公司总市值因素降低了资本结构水平，通胀水平提高了资本结构水平。影子银行规模的增长反而降低了资本结构水平，凸显了我国金融体系中的结构性矛盾。其三，资本结构调整成本和资产流动性差异造成账面杠杆和市值杠杆调整速度的差异，其中市值杠杆调整更快。其四，影子银行规模负向影响企业最优资本结构，正向调节资本结构调整速度。

关键词: 宏观经济动态, 资本结构调整, 优序融资理论, 权衡理论

Abstract: Macroeconomic conditions are vital factors affecting the optimal capital structure of a company. Based on the economic situation of China, this paper systematically analyzes the impact of changes in macroeconomic conditions on corporate capital structure, and adds the shadow banking factor into the research framework for the first time. Using the financial data of listed companies, we construct corresponding static and partial dynamic adjustment models for analysis, and focus on the impact of shadow banking on corporate capital structure and adjustment speed. The empirical results can be summarized as follows. First, total market value and profitability are negatively correlated with book leverage, and book-to-market value ratio, capital expenditure and total non-current assets are positively correlated with book leverage. The influence of total assets is heterogeneous, which pushes up the book leverage of state-owned enterprises and reduces the book leverage of private enterprises. Second, the growth rate of industrial added value and the total market value of listed companies reduce the level of capital structure while inflation increases the level of capital structure. The growth of shadow banking reduces the level of capital structure, highlighting the structural contradictions in China’s financial system. Third, the capital structure adjustment cost and the difference in asset liquidity cause the difference between the adjustment of book leverage and market leverage, in which market leverage adjustment is faster. Fourth, shadow banking reduces the optimal corporate capital structure and positively regulates the speed of capital structure adjustment.

Key words: macroeconomic dynamic, adjustment of capital structure, pecking order theory, trade off theory