社会信任与分析师盈余预测

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文理论分析并实证检验社会信任对分析师盈余预测的影响及其作用机制。以中国2007—2018年A股非金融上市公司为研究样本,结果发现,社会信任能显著提升分析师盈余预测的准确性并降低预测分歧度;社会信任对分析师盈余预测的改善作用主要存在于法律环境较好的地区和市场竞争程度更低的行业。进一步检验发现,社会信任显著提高了企业的会计信息透明度并增强了企业盈余稳定性,且两者均具有重要的中介效应,表明提高信息披露质量是社会信任影响分析师盈余预测的具体作用路径。本文从社会信任的视角为分析师盈余预测的影响因素提供了新证据,丰富和拓展了有关社会信任经济后果的研究,对于在推进法治建设的同时加强培育优良的社会信任环境以促进资本市场高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。

关键词: 社会信任, 分析师盈余预测, 信息质量, 法律环境, 市场竞争

Abstract: This paper theoretically analyzes and empirically tests the influence of social trust on analysts’ earnings forecasts and its mechanism. Using the data of China’s A-share listed non-financial companies from 2007 to 2018, we find that social trust can significantly improve the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts and reduce the dispersion of forecasts. The improvement effect of social trust on analysts’ earnings forecasts mainly exists in the environment of more perfect legal system or lower market competition. Further research finds that social trust significantly improves the transparency of accounting information and the stability of earnings, and both of them have an important mediating effect between social trust and analysts’ earnings forecast. This paper enriches and expands the research on factors affecting analyst earnings forecast from the perspective of social trust. At the same time, it helps to expand and deepen the research on social trust from the perspective of analysts' earnings forecasts. It also shows that, while promoting the construction of the rule of law, the government should also vigorously strengthen integrity construction and cultivate a better social trust environment to promote the high-quality development of the capital market.

Key words: social trust, analysts’ earnings forecasts, information quality, legal environment, market competition

李文贵, 鲍娇蕾. 社会信任与分析师盈余预测[J]. 管理评论, 2023, 35(1): 283-297.

Li Wengui, Bao Jiaolei. Social Trust and Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts[J]. Management Review, 2023, 35(1): 283-297.

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