生产率门槛与出口等待

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于2000—2006年的中国工业企业数据和海关产品层面交易数据，本文首先对中国工业企业的出口等待时间进行了分布估计，研究发现企业出口等待时间平均为47年，中位值为5年，且存在明显的正时间依存性。接着，本文进一步采用Cox风险比例模型探讨了出口临界生产率对企业出口等待时间的影响作用，结果表明生产率门槛的提高将显著延长企业的出口等待时间，且这一论断得到了多种稳健性检验的支持。另外，风险比率的估算结果表明，生产率门槛每提高1个百分点，企业进入出口市场的风险率将下降02827%。再者，本研究表明生产率门槛对企业出口等待时间的延长效应具有显著的所有制、行业与地区异质性。进一步地，本文发现入世有助于弱化企业出口等待的门槛效应，而不确定性的上升则将加剧这一效应。本文的研究表明积极地推动各种双边与多边自由贸易区的建立以及为企业营造稳定的经营环境、减少市场的不确定性，应当成为政府的工作重点。

关键词: 出口临界生产率, 出口等待时间, 异质性, 不确定性

Abstract: Using China’s transaction-level trade data and firm-level production data during 2000—2006, this paper firstly estimates the duration of Chinese industrial enterprises’ waiting for exporting. The results show that the average duration of waiting for exporting is 4.7 years and the median one is 5 years. Besides, the hazard rate of export entry has a prominent positive duration dependence. Then, this paper uses Cox proportional hazards model to analyse the impact of export cutoff productivity on duration of waiting for exporting. The result indicates that the rising of productivity threshold will significantly prolong the duration of waiting for exporting, and this conclusion is supported by a variety of robustness tests. In addition, the estimation result of hazard ratio shows that every 1% increase in productivity threshold will lead to a 0.2827% decrease in the hazard rate of firms’ export entry. Moreover, this study shows that there exists a significant heterogeneity in ownership, industrial and regional influences on duration of waiting for exporting. Further, this paper finds that China’s accession to the WTO helps to weaken the threshold effect of export cutoff productivity on duration of enterprises’ waiting for exporting, while the rising of uncertainty will aggravate this effect. This study indicates that it should be a focus of the government to actively promote the establishment of bilateral and multilateral free trade zones, to create a stable business environment for enterprises and to reduce the uncertainty in markets.

Key words: export cutoff productivity, duration of waiting for exporting, heterogeneity, uncertainty

段连杰, 滕飞, 鲁晓东. 生产率门槛与出口等待[J]. 管理评论, 2022, 34(9): 71-86.

Duan Lianjie, Teng Fei, Lu Xiaodong. Productivity Threshold and Duration of Waiting for Exporting[J]. Management Review, 2022, 34(9): 71-86.

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