机动车污染物减排管控策略的双重红利效应研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 城市交通拥堵及其诱发的空气污染现象已成为当前不容忽视的社会和环境问题。本文以机动车为例，引入惩罚机制，构建了一种机动车污染物减排管理模型，通过动态仿真来探究不同政策方案对主要变量的影响，进而揭示其红利效应。结果表明:①适度的罚金不仅能够有效减少GDP损耗量和非法出行增长量，而且能够显著降低交通拥堵程度，体现了该政策的经济和社会效益。②通过对收费、罚款和补贴三种政策作用效果的比较，发现:在缓堵方面，收费>罚款>补贴；在降低机动车非法出行方面，罚款>收费>补贴；在减排方面，收费>补贴>罚款，并且补贴和罚款的作用效果十分有限，呈现出“弱减排”效应。

关键词: 系统动力学, 空气污染, 交通拥堵, 减排, 红利效应

Abstract: Urban traffic congestion and the resultant air pollution have become social and environmental problems that can't be ignored. Taking motor vehicles as an example, this paper introduces penalty mechanism to construct an improved model of motor vehicle pollutant emission reduction management. Through dynamic simulation, this paper explores the effects of different policies and schemes on the main variables, and then reveals the dividend effect of different strategies. The results show that:(1) Proper amount of fines can bring good economic and social benefits in such a way as to effectively reduce GDP depletion, inhibit illegal travel and ease off the traffic. (2) By comparing the effects of the three policies air pollution of charging fee (APCF), penalty and subsidy, it is found that:in terms of congestion mitigation, APCF > penalty > subsidy; in terms of reducing illegal motor vehicle travel, penalty > APCF > subsidy; in terms of emission reduction, APCF > subsidy > penalty; and the effects of subsidy and penalty are not obvious.

Key words: system dynamics, air pollution, traffic congestion, emission reduction, dividend effect

贾书伟. 机动车污染物减排管控策略的双重红利效应研究[J]. 管理评论, 2022, 34(6): 53-61,182.

Jia Shuwei. Double Dividend Effect of Vehicle Pollutant Reduction Control Strategy[J]. Management Review, 2022, 34(6): 53-61,182.

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