管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (12): 302-311.

• 公共管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

内卷化倾向与设立国家级开发区政策效应的再评估——基于271个地级市的准自然实验分析

黄信灶1, 赵波1, 罗小娟2   

  1. 1. 江西师范大学区域发展研究院, 南昌 330022;
    2. 江西师范大学江西经济发展研究院, 南昌 330022
  • 收稿日期:2021-06-21 出版日期:2022-12-28 发布日期:2023-01-16
  • 通讯作者: 赵波(通讯作者),江西师范大学区域发展研究院教授,博士生导师,博士。
  • 作者简介:黄信灶,江西师范大学区域发展研究院副教授,硕士生导师,博士;罗小娟,江西师范大学江西经济发展研究院副教授,硕士生导师,博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点项目(19AJY003);国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BJY063);江西省高校人文社会科学项目(JJ162001)。

Involution Tendency and Reassessment of the Policy Effect of Establishing National-level Development Zones——Quasi-natural Experiment Analysis Based on 271 Prefecture-level Cities

Huang Xinzao1, Zhao Bo1, Luo Xiaojuan2   

  1. 1. Regional Development Research Institute, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022;
    2. Jiangxi Economic Development Research Institute, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022
  • Received:2021-06-21 Online:2022-12-28 Published:2023-01-16

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摘要： 国家级开发区是促进经济增长、优化产业结构、吸引外商投资的中坚力量,也是推进我国经济高质量发展的主战场。因此中央政府与地方政府有着一致的动机,即希望通过设立(申请)国家级开发区以推进地方经济的发展。然而,由于开发区自身发展模式存在内卷化的倾向,设立国家级开发区的政策效应是一如既往或是正在弱化呢?本文使用271个地级市的数据,以国家高新区为例,采用合成控制法比较2010年与2012年设立国家高新区的政策效应,发现设立国家高新区仍是推动当地经济发展的有效政策,但是:(1)在带动经济增长的作用上,相较于2010年,2012年设立的国家高新区在带动当地GDP增长的作用上出现弱化,仅在2017年就平均减少了1.54亿元;(2)在带动增长模式转变上,2012年设立的国家高新区的作用平均减弱了0.33。可见,设立国家级开发区的政策效应已经弱化,也间接证明国家级开发区存在着内卷化的倾向。因此在新发展阶段,各级政府应放低对设立国家级开发区的政策效应的期望,将政策重心放在建立开发区内卷化的规避机制上,以推进开发区转型升级、实现有发展的增长。

关键词: 开发区, 政策效应, 内卷化, 合成控制法, PSM-DID

Abstract: National-level development zones are the backbone to promote economic growth, upgrade industrial structure and attract foreign investment. They are also the main battlefield to promote China's high-quality economic development. Therefore, both the central government and local governments are motivated to promote local economic development by establishing (applying for) national-level development zones. However, due to the involution tendency typical of the development zone's own development model, is the policy effect of establishing a national-level development zone as usual or weakening? Using the data of 271 prefecture level cities and taking the National-level High-tech Development Zones (NHDZ) as an example, this paper uses the synthetic control method to compare the policy effects of the establishment of NHDZ in 2010 and 2012. It is found that the establishment of NHDZ are still effective policies to promote local economic development, but (1) in terms of driving economic growth, compared with the establishment in 2010, the NHDZ established in 2012 have weakened their role in driving local GDP growth. 2017 alone saw an average decrease of RMB154 million; (2) In terms of driving the transformation of growth mode, the role of NHDZ established in 2012 decreased by an average of 0.33. It can be seen that the policy effect of the establishment has been weakened, which indirectly proves that there is a involution tendency in the NHDZ. Therefore, in the new development stage, governments at all levels should lower their expectations for the policy effects of the establishment of the NHDZ, focus their policies on the establishment of involution avoidance mechanism in the NHDZ, promote the transformation and upgrading of the NHDZ and achieve constructive growth.

Key words: development zones, policy effect, involution, synthetic control method, PSM-DID