管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2021, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 54-65.

• 经济与金融管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

P2P网贷风险演化：基于平台和监管方的博弈

魏明侠1, 赵艳2, 夏雨1   

  1. 1. 河南工业大学管理学院, 郑州 450001;
    2. 华中师范大学信息管理学院, 武汉 430079
  • 收稿日期:2018-06-27 出版日期:2021-03-28 发布日期:2021-04-06
  • 作者简介:魏明侠,河南工业大学管理学院院长,教授,博士生导师,博士;赵艳,华中师范大学信息管理学院博士研究生;夏雨,河南工业大学管理学院讲师,博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目（18BGL264）；河南省高校哲学社会科学创新团队项目（2019CXTD-04）；河南省高校人文社科重点研究基地资助项目（2015-JD-04）。

The Evolution of Online P2P Lending Risk: Game Based on Platform and Supervisor

Wei Mingxia1, Zhao Yan2, Xia Yu1   

  1. 1. School of Management, Henan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450001;
    2. School of Information Management, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079
  • Received:2018-06-27 Online:2021-03-28 Published:2021-04-06

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摘要： 随着P2P网贷市场迅猛发展，风险问题也愈加凸显；为了推动P2P网贷市场的持续健康发展，需要在明晰P2P网贷风险演化机理的基础上，对其进行有效监管。本文在此背景下，应用演化博弈理论，建立P2P网贷平台和监管方博弈模型，对模型进行求解和推演，并在此基础上进行数值实验，以揭示P2P网贷风险演化规律。研究结果表明：在既定的条件下，P2P网贷风险是平台方和监管方重复博弈的结果，市场风险水平随双方行为群体结构的变化而变化；P2P平台合规经营收益提高会引起平台群体风险水平下降；监管方严格监管收益增加，宽松监管收益降低，会导致监管方群体风险水平下降；平台惩罚力度和监管方转移收入增加将使P2P平台群体和监管方群体风险水平同时下降，逐渐形成相对较低的P2P网贷市场风险水平。

关键词: P2P网贷风险, P2P平台, 监管方, 演化博弈

Abstract: Risk issues of peer-to-peer (P2P) lending have become increasingly prominent with its rapid development; in order to promote the sustained and healthy development of the P2P lending market, it is necessary to effectively supervise the P2P lending risk evolution mechanism based on its clarity. This paper applies evolutionary game theory by establishing a game model between P2P platform and supervisor in this context. The model is then solved and deduced, and numerical experiments are carried out on this basis to reveal the rules of P2P lending risk evolution. We find that the P2P lending risk is the result of repeated game between the platform and the supervisory under the established conditions, the level of market risk varies with the structure of the behavioral groups of both parties. The increase in the compliant operating income of the P2P platform will decrease the risk level of the platform group; the raise in the strict supervision income and the reduction in the loose regulatory income will lead to a decrease in the risk level of the regulators; the risk level of both parties will decline when the penalty of the platform and the transfer income of the regulator increase, and the relatively low online P2P lending risk level is gradually formed.

Key words: online peer-to-peer lending risk, P2P platform, supervisor, evolutionary game