管理评论

管理评论 ›› 2021, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 307-314.

• 公共管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

人工智能背景下制造业劳动力结构影响研究——以工业机器人发展为例

李舒沁1, 王灏晨2, 汪寿阳3,4   

  1. 1. 中国科协科学技术传播中心, 北京 100012;
    2. 国家信息中心经济预测部, 北京 100045;
    3. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院, 北京 100190;
    4. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院, 北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2019-04-18 出版日期:2021-03-28 发布日期:2021-04-06
  • 通讯作者: 汪寿阳(通讯作者),中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院、中国科学院大学经济与管理学院教授,博士生导师,博士
  • 作者简介:李舒沁,中国科协科学技术传播中心助理研究员,博士;王灏晨,国家信息中心经济预测部副研究员,博士。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金委员会2018年应急管理项目（71843008）；中国科学院学部咨询评议项目（2019-Z10-A-018）。

Research on the Factors that Influence the Labor Structure of the Manufacturing Industry in the Context of Artificial Intelligence——Taking the Development of Industrial Robots as an Example

Li Shuqin1, Wang Haochen2, Wang Shouyang3,4   

  1. 1. China Communication Center for Science and Technology, China Association for Science and Technology, Beijing 100012;
    2. Department of Economic Forecasting, State Information Center, Beijing 100045;
    3. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    4. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
  • Received:2019-04-18 Online:2021-03-28 Published:2021-04-06

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摘要： 人工智能正在应用于越来越多的行业，在制造业中的重要应用方式之一是工业机器人。理论界对工业机器人的使用对不同技能结构劳动力的影响有较多争论。本研究将我国制造业劳动力以受教育水平分为高、中、低技能三类，研究工业机器人年销量对各类型劳动力就业规模的影响。结果显示，随着工业机器人使用的增多，高技能劳动力就业规模上升，产生“补偿效应”，低技能劳动力就业规模下降，产生“替代效应”，而中技能劳动力所受影响并不显著。该结果为基于偏重技能的技术变化（SBTC）理论分析工业机器人与劳动力就业关系的研究提供了中国制造业领域的证据，并反映出中国的特殊性。本文的启示包括为不同技能水平的劳动力提供合适的知识和技能培训，适当延迟高技能劳动力退休年龄，以及拓宽发展空间以吸引更多人，特别是高技能劳动力投身制造业。

关键词: 人工智能, 工业机器人, 制造业, 劳动力, 技能结构

Abstract: Artificial intelligence is being used in more and more industries. One of the important applications in manufacturing is industrial robots. There is much debate about the effect of industrial robot use on labor force with different skill structures. In this study, labor force in Chinese manufacturing is divided into three categories according to the education level:high-, medium- and low-skill, and the influence of the annual sales of industrial robots on the employment scale of each type of labor force is studied. The results show that with the increasing use of industrial robots, the employment scale of high-skilled labor force increases, resulting in the “compensation effect”, while the employment scale of low-skilled labor force decreases, resulting in the “substitution effect”, while the medium-skilled labor force is not significantly affected. The results provide evidence in China's manufacturing industry for research on the relationship between industrial robots and labor employment based on SBTC theory, and reflect the particularity of China. The implications summarized in this paper include providing appropriate knowledge and skills training for different labor forces, appropriately delaying the retirement age of high-skilled labor forces, and expanding the development space to attract more people, especially high-skilled labor forces, to work in manufacturing industry.

Key words: artificial intelligence (AI), industrial robots, manufacturing industry, labor force, skill structure